Tentative signs of recovery in the multi-family sector, but single-family starts look set to fall further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Equipment investment likely leapt by about 7% in Q2, driven by surging transport and computer spending...
- ...But these components are volatile; high borrowing costs will weigh on capex unrelated to the AI boom.
- The jump in jobless claims was due to auto plant closures and Hurricane Beryl, but the trend is rising too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Latin American recovery faces headwinds as the US presidential election looms large on the horizon.
- Mr. Trump’s potential return to power threatens to disrupt LatAm economies and trade relations.
- Mexico is the most directly exposed, and Brazil the least vulnerable, to a potential Trump presidency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The manufacturing downturn is over, but growth in output in the second half of this year will be sluggish.
- High mortgage rates and excess new home inventory suggest single-family housing starts will fall further.
- We look today for a pick-up in initial jobless claims, but the data are prone to unpredictable swings in July.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
- Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
- Chile — Boric navigates pension and energy reforms
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - The June core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.15%, below the Fed’s forecast
- EUROZONE - Will the ECB signal a September rate cut this week? We think so
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
CHINA+ - China hits a soft patch in Q2, as domestic demand dwindles
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing recovery likely still on the cards in Singapore
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The jump in core retail sales in June has the hallmarks of a weather-related blip; expect a pullback in July.
- We expect partial recoveries in June housing starts and building permits, but a poor outturn for Q2 overall.
- Manufacturing output likely grew briskly in both June and Q2, but the recovery will slow in Q3.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Colombia’s manufacturing sector is struggling, while Peru’s economy is showing outstanding resilience.
- High interest rates and inflation dampen Colombia’s growth; domestic demand is improving in Peru.
- Political uncertainty is hindering Colombia’s recovery; Peru’s outlook is brightening, despite politics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our Homebase model points to a 200K rise in private payrolls, but its errors in prior Julys have been big...
- ...So we will place more weight this time on the NFIB, S&P Global, ISM and regional Fed business surveys.
- Headline retail sales probably fell in June, due to a slump in sales of autos and gasoline.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economy continues to show resilience in Q2, supported by a strong labour market.
- The outlook for H2 is positive, despite challenges, but tight financial conditions will hurt in 2025.
- Argentina’s inflation continues to undershoot, bolstering confidence in Milei’s stabilisation plan.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Depressed again by the shift to web-based data collection.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The June core PCE deflator likely undershot the Fed’s implied forecast pace for a second straight month.
- The jump in PPI trade services looks like noise; margins likely will come under renewed pressure in Q3.
- People expect higher unemployment and lower inflation; the Fed needs to ease, soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Peru's BCRP held rates for a second straight meeting, amid sticky core inflation, but eyes future easing.
- A mixed performance for Mexico's industrial sector: construction is solid, manufacturing is struggling.
- Banxico's minutes lean towards a rate cut in August; softening economic activity supports this view.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Temporary pressures but underlying trends under control.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Plunging airline fares flattered June’s tiny rise in the core CPI, but most services prices were subdued too.
- CPI data and our PPI forecasts map to a 0.17% rise in the core PCE deflator, but our estimate will shift today.
- The Michigan consumer sentiment index probably rose slightly in July, lifted by a surging stock market.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s underlying inflation picture remains in check, but political and economic risks are intensifying.
- BCB faces a complex scenario as the labour market and private consumption appear resilient, for now.
- Retail sales surged in May despite economic headwinds, beating expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
