Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
- Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
- Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
LATAM SHIELDS ITSELF AMID TARIFF TURMOIL…
- …BUT VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS REMAIN ELEVATED
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
- In one line: Consumption resilient amid headwinds, but confidence wavers as external risks build.
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
- US - Payroll growth is unlikely to have slowed decisively as soon as April
- EUROZONE - PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ–US trade surplus jumps
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - Chinese policymakers keep heads down, focusing on domestic issues
- EM ASIA - Easter rewind: the start of tougher times for Indonesian exports
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil challenge COPOM’s roadmap
- Colombia’s suspension from the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line marks a turning point in its economic trajectory.
- The move is technically temporary, but it reflects deep fiscal vulnerabilities.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as the FCL suspension raises policy constraints and market pressures.
- February’s IGAE rebound brought short-term relief but failed to alter Mexico’s waning growth trajectory.
- External trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on capex.
- Government growth forecasts are disconnected from prevailing conditions, with recession risk high.
- Inflation pressures in Brazil deepened in April, driven by food and healthcare, with risks tilted upwards.
- The BCB will hike on May 7 as it battles sticky services inflation; will it move to the sidelines thereafter?
- Fiscal fragility and currency volatility complicate the policy mix, threatening inflation and market stability.
- In one line: Retail momentum softens in February after January’s rebound.
- Mexico’s surprise inflation rebound in early April reflects temporary shocks…
- …Primarily the lagged effect of MXN depreciation, rather than a fundamental shift in the inflation trend.
- Retail sales point to a broader slowdown in domestic demand, despite a better-than-expected Q1.
- Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
- Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
- Colombia — Reform gamble deepens risks
