Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Auto insurance prices likely rebounded in June, driving a 0.3% increase in the core CPI...
- ...But we look for chunky falls in vehicle prices and a modest increase in core-core services prices.
- We look for a rise in jobless claims today, as auto plant and school closures overwhelm the seasonals.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
- Mexico — Navigating turbulence
- Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
- EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
- CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
- EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
- The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
- The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
- Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
- …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
- Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
- NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
- Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
- Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Private payroll growth slowed sharply in Q2; revisions could easily worsen the picture.
- Tight monetary policy is the primary cause; employment growth will slow further in Q3.
- Wage growth now is consistent with the 2% inflation target; the Fed will ease multiple times in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
- The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
- Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We’re sticking with our forecast that payrolls rose by 160K in June, below the 190K consensus.
- The unemployment rate likely was unchanged at 4.0%, but large sampling error creates uncertainty.
- Neither the ISM or S&P services PMI is clearly better than the other; the truth likely lies between the two.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - May’s PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough
- Eurozone - We’re lifting our EZ GDP growth forecasts for Q2, by 0.1pp to 0.3%
- UK - Forecast review: Cutting through a storm of strong data
- China+ - China’s light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand
- EM Asia - Thailand’s year-end digital cash handout will be no silver bullet
- LatAm - Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
- Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
- Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chair Powell sounds more optimistic on inflation, but wants to see no further rise in unemployment.
- We expect initial claims above the consensus for the fifth time in six weeks; summer data will be volatile.
- The June ISM services survey will probably provide further signs of disinflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
- We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
- High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
- Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
