Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Bigger US front-loading drives Thai export growth to a 3-year high
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
- …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore Indonesia’s larger-than-expected surplus in March; export growth will be weaker from Q2.
- Expect more downside this month after Indian inflation fell to a five-year-plus low in March…
- …Our food-price tracker indicates downside risks are still intensifying; our 2025 CPI call is now 3.0%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
- …They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
- Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP restarted its easing cycle this month with a 25bp cut, to 5.50%, after February’s shock pause…
- …The Board is no longer behind the curve on CPI, as it slashed its 2025 forecast to 2.3%, from 3.5%.
- We’re maintaining our 2.5% CPI call, for now, and still see 75bp more in rate cuts by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts from the RBI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI voted unanimously for a second 25bp rate cut and a shift in stance to “accommodative”.
- Its softer CPI forecasts now see below-target inflation persisting until the end of this year…
- …Opening the door to at least two more cuts—our baseline—more than the consensus for just one.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Short-lived, policy-induced deflation is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Short-lived, policy-induced deflation in Indonesia is over
How high can Philippine sales go before they hit a ceiling?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian CPI returned to the black in March, as the power discounts expired; food will soon U-turn.
- The Philippines’ sales index continues to surge, but a number of consumer sectors are still struggling.
- Food inflation in Taiwan continues to rise, though some of this is exaggerated by base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Seasonally adjusting Vietnam’s quirky GDP data shows that growth improved further in Q1, to 7.3%…
- …But a sharp fall by year-end to sub-5%—at least— looks inevitable, as US tariffs hit exports and capex.
- Outright deflation in Thailand seems set to take hold, again, bolstering our call for an April BoT cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
- …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
- We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
