Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 October 2024

Below-target range inflation effectively guarantees another BSP cut this month

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, September

• In one line: Much more food disinflation ahead.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, September

• In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2024

Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, August

• In one line: A 3.5-year low; base effects were the main culprit, but momentum is vanishing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: Boosted—again—by volatile ‘other’ sales.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, August

• In one line: DM demand is helping to stabilise the ship.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 September 2024

The moderation in India’s PMIs continues, as they end Q3 on a soft note
Food disinflation pushed down Malaysian inflation in August
Singaporean headline inflation falls in August, despite a pick-up in core

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, August

• In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, August

• In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, August

• In one line: A solid month for exports, but downside risks linger.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 September 2024

A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: August CPI & July IP, India

• In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: August CPI & July IP, India

• In one line: The improvement in food inflation is real; IP is losing steam, with support from consumer industries fading quickly.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 September 2024

Indonesian retail sales growth remains skin-deep
A reassuring start to the third quarter for Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 September 2024

Vietnamese exports are regaining momentum, thanks in large part to US demand
We’ve seen enough; downgrading our inflation forecasts for Vietnam
Actual retail sales growth in Vietnam remains in the log single-digit range
The latest slump in Philippine sales is starting to bottom out, just

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 September 2024

Philippine inflation falls back dramatically into the BSP’s target range, thanks to food base effects
The return of transportation and communication deflation in Thailand should be short-lived
Soft start for Singaporean retail sales growth in Q3

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, August

• In one line: Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the headline.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global