Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Taiwanese consumer demand remains fragile, but the weak August sales print is not representative...
- …As volatile vehicle sales growth depressed the headline; this is likely to rebound in September.
- Thai exports stayed robust in August, but leading indicators are grim and THB strength is a threat.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs are down concurrently year-over-year for the first time in a while, signalling 5% growth.
- Malaysian food inflation is likely to increase, but headline disinflation overall is still on track.
- Singapore’s core inflation rise is no cause for worry; domestic services inflation momentum is slowing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised yesterday by starting its easing cycle, hours ahead of the Fed’s own first cut.
- We’ve added a few more rate cuts to our outlook, and now see the BI rate ending 2025 at 4.75%.
- Blame a gold rush for India’s deficit blowout in August, which masked a few key silver linings.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth rose to a 19-month high in August, but this leap faces major downside risks.
- Singapore’s exports are still benefiting from the continued recovery in electronics demand.
- RBI Governor Das sounds less adamant that rate cuts require 4% long-run CPI; all eyes on October.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian sales growth rose to a four-month high in July, but the underlying trends remain weak…
- …Consumer confidence is still subdued year-over- year, and this could soon hurt borrowing appetite.
- The mirror image in Philippine sales growth is just as misleading; support from jobs has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s PMI slowed noticeably to 51.1 in August from the mid-to-high 51.0 range since May…
- …Vietnam's and Thailand’s PMIs saw the biggest declines from July, but Indonesia is the real worry.
- The deterioration in orders, due to BI’s excessively tight policy stance in Indonesia, is isolated for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s main inflation gauges were unchanged in August: the headline at 2.1% and core at 2.0%…
- …But food inflation remains a big drag and will likely pull the headline below 1.5% at the turn of the year.
- The budget deficit has ballooned this year, but 2025 looks set to see only marginal subsidy reductions.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50% yesterday in another six-to-one split vote…
- …We got this one wrong, but we continue to believe that 50bp of cuts will be made by year-end.
- The MPC is finally worrying about local demand; better late than never, as exports won’t help.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, despite a hefty—but unsustainable—bounce in exports…
- …External demand looks set to stay lacklustre into 2025, weighing further on already-weak capex.
- We remain downbeat on growth, and still see the BoT cutting rates twice before year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP started easing policy yesterday; we now expect much larger 50bp cuts from December.
- The ousting of Thai PM Srettha will weigh further on the capex recovery and silence some MPC hawks.
- Indonesia’s July trade data were very mixed; don’t read much into the upside and downside surprises.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The July collapse in inflation in India below the key 4.0% mark, alone, won’t matter to RBI policy.
- A tepid bounce in August, however, with vegetable prices now correcting, would support calls for a cut.
- We also think that this month’s Q2 GDP will disappoint heavily; our final forecast is 6.0%
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Base effects were behind the Philippines’ consensus-matching Q2 GDP print, nothing more.
- Consumption is now in a shallow recession, while the post-Covid catch-up in capex is still struggling.
- We have raised our forecasts, but still see GDP growth slowing to 5.4% this year and 5.2% in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai CPI surprised marginally to the upside in July, with headline rate rising to 0.8% and core to 0.5%.
- The mean-reversion up in food prices should see inflation return temporarily to target-range until Q1.
- Core inflation is likely to remain under 1%, though; the weak economy will keep this gauge anchored.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We now expect the BSP to wait until October to cut rates, as inflation re-breached the target in July.
- Taiwanese inflation, up slightly in July, should start to benefit from friendly base effects from August.
- Singaporean retail sales growth continued to deteriorate in June on weaker volumes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian GDP growth barely changed in Q2, at 5.1%, despite the U-turn in election spend.
- Capex was the main cushion on a quarterly basis, but dark clouds are still building over consumption.
- The correction in food prices has run its course, but food disinflation still has plenty of room to run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s final 2024/25 budget sees a smaller 4.9%-of-GDP deficit than the 5.1% interim target…
- …But this ‘improvement’ is largely because of a better starting point and the RBI’s dividend.
- The real good news is a more realistic tax estimate and a continuation of the focus on capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-way goods trade in Indonesia rebounded robustly in Q2, mainly thanks to EM demand…
- …But the tourism recovery is still waning; expect a 0.9pp net trade lift to GDP, up from -0.2pp in Q1.
- Food price pressures in India are building again, forcing us to raise our 2024 and 2025 CPI outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s trade performance in June blew the consensus out of the water…
- …As export and import growth surprised hugely to the upside, thanks to the recovery in electronics.
- The Philippines’ trade deficit has been growing since the start of Q2; exports should pick up soon.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
- …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
- Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Extremely good CPI data for June, if like us you expect the BSP and the BoT to cut rates in August.
- Taiwanese headline inflation picked up in June on goods inflation, amid still-sticky services inflation.
- A continued improvement in external demand should see Singaporean GDP growth rise in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
