Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
- …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
- Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.
- Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
- The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
- …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.
- Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
- Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
- We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.
- Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
- …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
- Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.
- Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
- Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
- Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
- India’s decent April IP is not without its flaws; growth is now tanking at the margin…
- …This emerging softness is due to falling consumer non-durables, masked by flying capital goods.
- Blame seasonal noise for Thailand’s biggest trade deficit in over two years, but US demand is sliding.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
- Bank Indonesia resumed easing, with a 25bp cut; the Q1 GDP letdown was even graver in actuality.
- The Board’s lower credit growth forecast is already looking too optimistic; we see 75bp more in cuts.
- US and ASEAN front-loading continues to mask weak Chinese demand for Malaysian exports.
- GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
- …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
- This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.
- Indonesia’s March retail sales report was flattered by Ramadan effects; beware the slide in confidence.
- Malaysian sales were also strong in March, at 6.6% year-over-year, suggesting strong Q1 consumption.
- Indian WPI inflation dropped to a 13-month low in April, thanks in large part to waning food pressures.
- Indian inflation dropped to a 69-month low in April; we now see a terminal rate of 5.25% for the RBI.
- Below-average food inflation looks set to stay, with this year’s monsoon season expected to be fruitful.
- Note that CPI has yet to benefit fully from the slump in global oil prices, implying huge downward risk.
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
- …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
- Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
- …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.
- Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
- …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
- We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.
- The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
- …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
- Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.
