- The strong 2024 run in India’s PMIs continued in April, but they still point to sub-8% GDP growth…
- …Hiring appears to have regained momentum recently, but the hard EPFO data remain sluggish.
- Continued headline disinflation in Singapore will be tough, as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s surplus leapt unexpectedly to a 13-month high, with exports reversing their 2024 drop.
- The outlook for key commodities has brightened, pointing to an imminent return to positive growth…
- …Real demand from China also looks set to pop, but this probably won’t be felt until Q2, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Things are suddenly turning up for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Things are suddenly turning up for Indonesian exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net sales growth in the Philippines remains in the red; remittances now look unlikely to save the day.
- The consumer debt binge is lasting much longer than we thought, but the payback is looming.
- The much-needed savings rebuild looks to be reversing, and confidence is now plunging.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian industrial production growth rebounded in February, but the climate remains challenging…
- …The inventory-to-sales ratio continues to deteriorate, while consumer demand is sagging.
Core inflation fell to a new low in March; thankfully, food-price stickiness isn’t impacting expectations.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia