Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
Thailand's bigger-than-expected October deficit masks resurgent US exports
Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for India
Malaysia’s recent inflation spike could be over
- India’s PMIs are still broadly losing steam heading into 2026, pointing to ‘just’ 6.4% Q4 GDP growth…
- …The future output indices in both PMIs are tanking, pouring cold water over a mid-2026 recovery.
- Malaysian inflation eased to 1.3% in October after months of rise s; we think food inflation will return.
- In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
- BI stood pat yesterday, as widely expected; we see one final cut in December and RRR easing in 2026.
- Singaporean export growth leapt unexpectedly in October, but leading indicators remain very soft.
- Malaysian exports are finally benefiting from the AI boom, as they surged by 15.7% in October.
- Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
- …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
- Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.
- In one line: Gold imports are still surging, but real import demand has also gone up a gear.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss
Upstream price pressures in India remain soft on all fronts
- Vietnam has formally approved a 10% GDP growth target for 2026, which would be a record result…
- …Flying M2 growth means this is within reach, but it seems destined to correct sharply in the near term.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q3 GDP sees growth slowing markedly to 6.8%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.
- In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.
- CPI inflation in India fell to an historic low in October, at 0.3%, as food deflation deepened…
- …Our daily food-price tracker compels us to lower our 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 2.1% and 3.3%.
- The mean-reversion up in core inflation vanishes completely if we strip out the lift from gold prices.
Decent, if unspectacular, close to Q3 for Indonesian retail sales
Sales days and festivals boost Malaysian retail
- Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
- …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
- Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.
The Philippines’ Q3 GDP was ugly all around
Still no light at the end of the tunnel in the sales data
- GDP growth in the Philippines collapsed to a post-pandemic low of 4.0% in Q3, as investment tanked…
- …More capex weakness is likely ahead, as we’ve yet to see the full impact of the ICI’s scrutiny.
- We’ve downgraded our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP forecasts to just 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively.
