Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October 2025

• In one line: Gold imports are still surging, but real import demand has also gone up a gear.

18 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Inventories make Thailand's Q3 GDP look worse than it actually was

• GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
• …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
• We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 November 2025

Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 November 2025

Upstream price pressures in India remain soft on all fronts

17 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's 10% GDP target in theory achievable, with M2 soaring

• Vietnam has formally approved a 10% GDP growth target for 2026, which would be a record result…
• …Flying M2 growth means this is within reach, but it seems destined to correct sharply in the near term.
• Our final forecast for India’s Q3 GDP sees growth slowing markedly to 6.8%, from 7.8% in Q2.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, October 2025

• In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, October 2025

• In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.

13 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor More downgrades to India's CPI outlook; we see just 3.3% in 2026

• CPI inflation in India fell to an historic low in October, at 0.3%, as food deflation deepened…
• …Our daily food-price tracker compels us to lower our 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 2.1% and 3.3%.
• The mean-reversion up in core inflation vanishes completely if we strip out the lift from gold prices.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 November 2025

Decent, if unspectacular, close to Q3 for Indonesian retail sales
Sales days and festivals boost Malaysian retail

12 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian retail sales growth yet to regain its pre-pandemic form

• Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
• …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
• Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 November 2025

The Philippines’ Q3 GDP was ugly all around
Still no light at the end of the tunnel in the sales data

10 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' ugly Q3 GDP long in the making; ICI will make things worse

• GDP growth in the Philippines collapsed to a post-pandemic low of 4.0% in Q3, as investment tanked…
• …More capex weakness is likely ahead, as we’ve yet to see the full impact of the ICI’s scrutiny.
• We’ve downgraded our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP forecasts to just 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 November 2025

No slow-moving crash, but the honeymoon in Vietnamese exports is clearly over
Ignore the softest sales print in a year
Outright transport deflation will return

7 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's export bonanza is over, but US payback is no one-way street

• Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
• BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
• Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, October 2025

• In one line: The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in sentiment continues.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2025

Local private demand let the Indonesia economy down in Q3
The post-“Liberation Day” recovery in ASEAN manufacturing sentiment continues
Outright Thai deflation still has a number of months left
Softer food and firmer housing & utilities inflation in the Philippines offset each other

6 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The real stories behind another 5% GDP print for Indonesia in Q3

• GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
• …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
• Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.

4 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's GST collection in October indicates no post-cut pop in activity

• India’s real GST collection growth in October was flat, at best, showing no post-cut pop in spending.
• Recovering Chinese demand is helping to keep Indonesian export growth lofty, but big risks linger.
• We have raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.1%, in light of the firm October reads.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, October 2025

• In one line: Raising our 2026 average inflation forecast to just over 3%.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, September 2025

• In one line: A deceptively quiet end to Q3 for trade.