Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 December 2025

Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate

9 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's exports continue to cool on US payback, but Q4 looks solid

• Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
• …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
• Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 December 2025

RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide

8 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last

• The RBI resumed easing, cutting by a further 25bp, but we still believe this was its last reduction…
• …The MPC’s tone was more neutral, and the mean reversion up in CPI in 2026 will lower real rate s.
• Philippine inflation missed to the downside in November, adding weight to our dovish BSP call.

4 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Target-range inflation in Thailand looking more and more distant

• Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
• We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
• … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 December 2025

Food inflation returns to the black in Thailand

3 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Net trade and consumption push Taiwan's Q3 GDP even higher

• Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
• More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
• India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, October 2025

• In one line: Made to look much worse by Diwali distortions.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, October 2025

• In one line: Made to look much worse by Diwali distortions.

2 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN's PMI still flying, but we see a few big holes in this story

• ASEAN’s PMI rose to a 38-month high in November, but a few of the drivers are questionable.
• Indonesian exports missed badly in October, but  commodities should be more supportive next year.
• Food disinflation is back in Indonesia, dragging the  headline rate below the consensus for November

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, November 2025

• In one line: The turn in rising food inflation is here.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, October 2025

• In one line: Export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, November 2025

• In one line: Strengthening to a 38-month high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 December 2025

ASEAN’s PMI strengthens to a 38-month high
Indonesian export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better
The turn in rising food inflation in Indonesia is here

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q3 2025

• In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, September 2025

• In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 November 2025

Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines

November 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID

• TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME

1 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's labour codes--alone--are no quick fix to unlock farm dominance

• India finally implemented its new labour codes after five years of dithering, reviving reform momentum…
• …But the structural employment shift from farming will still be held back by huge agricultural support.
• On the surface, the strong and market-beating Q3 GDP is beyond absurd; tread very carefully.