Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Inflated—yet again—by ‘other’ retail sales; ignore.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The year-over-year slump in Thai consumption growth has bled into Q2, amid poor wage growth.
- The Q4 handout is unlikely to offer real relief, with more households struggling just to pay off debt.
- Philippines’ household savings rose in 2023 for the first time since 2019; the battle is far from over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP’s rate hold yesterday was very dovish, and its rhetoric signals an August cut more clearly.
- The Board has taken the opportunity offered by the rice-tariff cut to recalibrate its cautious CPI bias…
- …Its risk-adjusted CPI forecasts are now snugly within the target range; GDP is back on the agenda.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE ‘REAL’ ECONOMY WHICH LET DOWN MODI’S BJP
- …NOTE THE NUANCE IN MALAYSIA’S DIESEL-SUBSIDY REFORM
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Q2 exports now look salvageable, after a sturdy May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global