- BI surprised yesterday with a 25bp hike, yet again citing a need to stabilise the IDR; this is just overkill.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth in March barely stayed in the black; price effects saved the day…
- …Real wage growth continues to tread water around zero percent, making a Q2 turnaround unlikely.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A strong—but dumb—policy response.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- The strong 2024 run in India’s PMIs continued in April, but they still point to sub-8% GDP growth…
- …Hiring appears to have regained momentum recently, but the hard EPFO data remain sluggish.
- Continued headline disinflation in Singapore will be tough, as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s surplus leapt unexpectedly to a 13-month high, with exports reversing their 2024 drop.
- The outlook for key commodities has brightened, pointing to an imminent return to positive growth…
- …Real demand from China also looks set to pop, but this probably won’t be felt until Q2, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Things are suddenly turning up for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Things are suddenly turning up for Indonesian exports
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth plummeted in March, but our advice is to take the figure in your stride...
- ...As the headline was dragged down by a series of one-off factors that should unwind in April.
- Indonesian retail sales growth spiked during the February election; don’t expect any follow-through.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net sales growth in the Philippines remains in the red; remittances now look unlikely to save the day.
- The consumer debt binge is lasting much longer than we thought, but the payback is looming.
- The much-needed savings rebuild looks to be reversing, and confidence is now plunging.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian industrial production growth rebounded in February, but the climate remains challenging…
- …The inventory-to-sales ratio continues to deteriorate, while consumer demand is sagging.
Core inflation fell to a new low in March; thankfully, food-price stickiness isn’t impacting expectations.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects are masking lacklustre momentum in Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday sprang no surprise, keeping its policy rate at 2.50% in another five-to-two split…
- …But its latest forecasts and rhetoric betray waning confidence; we continue to see the first cut in June.
- Taiwanese export growth rebounded strongly in March; watch the boom in AI-related shipments.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held rates yesterday but sounded more hawkish, raising its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.0%.
- We still expect 100bp in cuts this year, with the first in June; food inflation will start co-operating in May.
- Another day, another Lunar New Year boost to February retail sales growth; this time in Malaysia.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia