Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- The PMI for ASEAN was unchanged in October, at 50.5, despite a post-Yagi bounce-back in Vietnam…
- …Export-oriented countries, at large, have lost a lot of steam recently, in a warning sign for world trade.
- Indonesia’s sluggishness is a huge drag, given its sheer size; the rise in lead times is reversing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We see Indonesian GDP growth slipping to 4.8% in Q3 on waning consumption and a modest trade hit .
- Government spending and investment should offer some cushion, partly with help from base effects.
- Philippine GDP growth likely relapsed to 4.6% in Q3, in line with the sluggishness in consumption.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The minutes of the RBI’s October meeting suggest a possible pathway to a 4-to-2 cut in December.
- Core IP growth should bounce modestly in September, but largely on a base-effect technicality.
- Taiwanese GDP growth likely slowed further in Q3, to 3.4%, as support from domestic demand wanes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs start Q4 on a cautiously better note, after the September carnage
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for October show a bounce in both surveys from the painful September plunge.
- The moderating trend from the Q1 highs is still intact, though; the same is true for leading gauges.
- Both surveys suggest that hiring is going gang-busters, but we aren’t moved, looking at the EPFO.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO
- …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
- …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
- Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
- …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
- We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Thank a big reversal in the August leap in gold imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect easing to resume in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
- …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
- We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
