Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, July 2025

In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, July 2025

In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.

Global Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, July

In one line: manufacturing index slammed by falling output; July should be low point after US-Japan trade deal

23 July 2025 Global Monitor Solid Q2 GDP growth masks intensifying deflation in China

• US - Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July
• EUROZONE - ECB to stand pat this week; big decision awaits in September
• UK - Most of June’s CPI inflation rise was genuine
• CHINA+ - China’s steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation
• EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying
• LATAM - Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

Global Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, May, 2025

• In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.

Global Datanote: CPI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September. 

Global Datanote: Exports, China, June 2025

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow

Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens

Global Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, June

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

16 July 2025 Global Monitor The EZ would fall into recession with a 30% US trade tariff

• US -  Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply
• EUROZONE - A 30% US tariff would send the EZ economy into recession in H2
• UK -  Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth
• CHINA+ - China’s ‘glass half-full’ money and credit data
• EM ASIA - BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expectedEM ASIA -  
• LATAM - Brazil’s recovery stalls as financial and external headwinds mount

Global Datanote: CPI, India, June

• In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, May, 2025

• In one line: Recovery stalls as financial headwinds mount.

Global Datanote: CPI, Brazil, June, 2025

• In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.

Global Datanote: CPI, Mexico, June, 2025

• In one line: Core pressures lingering, but disinflation resumes.

Global Datanote: PPI, China, June 2025

• In one line: Producer deflation worsens due to weather hitting construction, a jump in renewable energy generation and trade frictions

Global Datanote: CPI, Chile, June, 2025

• In one line: Inflation falls again; BCCh likely to cut rates.

9 July 2025 Global Monitor UK's Chancellor is between a rock and a hard place

• US - Markets drew the wrong conclusions from June’s labor market data
• EUROZONE - No changes to our forecasts yet, despite delay to US tariff-rate hikes
• UK - Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules
• CHINA+ - Japan’s wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites
• EM ASIA - Vietnamese growth to come off the boil in H2 if GDP data turn realistic
• LATAM - Brazil’s manufacturing slumps, but mining shows resilience

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, June 2025

In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.