Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Our Homebase model points to a mere 125K rise in private payrolls in June, the least since October.
- Retail sales likely recovered in May from a subpar April, but the trend looks less robust.
- Industrial production likely picked up in May; surveys have nudged up and hours worked have risen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
- The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
- Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
- Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
- Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1…
- ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany.
- Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
- We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
- We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The CPI and PPI data imply that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May…
- …Below the 0.19% average run rate forecast by the Fed; September’s SEP update will support a rate cut.
- The Michigan sentiment index probably bounced this month, but job loss worries seem to be mounting.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- A whirlwind start for President Milei in Argentina; reforms, protests, economic turmoil…and disinflation.
- The Senate has narrowly approved a controversial bill giving him a badly needed first legislative victory.
- Brazil’s retail sales rise in April but undershoot expectations; the medium-term outlook is worsening.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The CBC made no change to its policy rate yesterday, but raised its RRR by 0.25pp...
- ...To stymie the flow of credit to the property sector, which has brushed off previous cooling measures.
- We expect the CBC to stay on hold, but upside risks to inflation might provoke another hike in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
- Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
- May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
- ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
- We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
- Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
- We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Fed’s hawkish dotplot is likely to have a short shelf life; the data will force faster easing than they expect.
- The May core CPI slowdown was deep-rooted; we expect just 0.20% average gains through year-end.
- CPI data signal a 0.16% rise in the core PCE deflator, but we will finalize our estimate after today’s PPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
- Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
- Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50%; dissenting votes for a 25bp cut fell to one, from two.
- Growth is the area that is most likely to disappoint, relative to the MPC’s rose-tinted expectations…
- …Its reasons for optimism are short-lived in nature; we still consider two 25bp cuts this year possible.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
- Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
- More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EU is about to hit Chinese EV producers with tariffs, but this is not a full-blown trade war.
- Services inflation is rising, judging by German May CPI, but leading indicators point to weakness soon.
- German bond yields should fall between now and end-2024, but they will rebound next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think unchanged GDP month-to-month in April signals a strong underlying trend.
- GDP held steady despite erratic and rain-disrupted sectors slicing 0.4pp off month-to-month growth.
- We upgrade our growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.2% call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The high core PCE prints in Q1 will force the Fed to revise up its Q4 forecast, and cut one easing.
- A jump in used car and vehicle insurance prices probably drove a 0.3% increase in the May core CPI...
- ...But core services CPI inflation likely slowed further, indicating monetary policy is tight enough.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
- The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
- Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We see the recent diesel-subsidy rationalisation in Malaysia as a net negative for retail sales growth...
- ...The impact on inflation is likely to be stronger, pushing the headline rate above 3% from June.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia plunged into the red in April; this year’s Ramadan splurge was limp.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
