Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Revisions to Taiwan’s GDP show that Q4 growth, at 2.9%, exceeded initial expectations.
- Consumption has been cooling from its post-Covid highs and is around its pre-pandemic average…
- …The 2025 trajectory for this component, using Google Trends searches, looks unimpressive.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- China has retaliated to US tariffs with its own tariffs on American agricultural products, and company bans.
- Korean WDA exports reversed trend and fell in February, due to weaker demand for semiconductors.
- Korea’s low-end chip production is facing intense competition from China, leading to falling unit prices.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EU’s first defence package contains only a small element of joint loans; more will be needed soon.
- EZ unemployment remains pinned at a record low, though we think it will start rising soon, slowly.
- Markets see tariff risks as dovish for ECB policy, but the economic data are pulling in the other direction.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
- …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
- The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Mr. Milei has achieved the ‘miracle’ of macro stabilisation without wrecking Argentina’s economy.
- The sectoral performance highlights strength in agriculture, mining and retail; construction lags behind.
- Peru’s disinflation is continuing, still within the central bank’s target range amid external uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s February PMIs point to a post-holiday activity bounce, but also improved sentiment.
- Sentiment in the manufacturing sector revived, thanks to expectations of stronger demand.
- The construction PMI rose on the back of infrastructure project construction work.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher.
- February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary.
- ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
- Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
- But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- China’s technology & manufacturing policy will take centre stage at the Two Sessions next week.
- Targeted consumption support will be ramped up; no big handout, but fiscal transfers should be supportive.
- The bank recapitalisation provides ammunition for mid-year stimulus, to mitigate the trade war impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role...
- ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
- Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
- Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
- The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss GDP rose by 0.5% on the quarter in Q4, much better than the measly 0.1% growth in EZ GDP.
- Growth will slow, falling in line with that in the EZ, as net trade drags on GDP and spending growth slows.
- The US President has fired another tariff threat at the EU, but we are still in waiting mode.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
- We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
- We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI core goods inflation will rise to 2% soon, from zero, if the latest manufacturing surveys are right...
- ...But we see little sign of cost pressures besides the China tariffs, which at most entail a 1pp uplift.
- January headline durable goods orders likely were strong, but we see renewed weakness ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
- …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ consumers’ spending likely rose by 0.4-to-0.5% in Q4, and we look for the same in Q1.
- We still think a stabilisation in the saving rate will underpin consumption growth this year.
- Consumer confidence data point to a sticky saving rate, but are an unreliable guide.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
- Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
- The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Industrial stocks have discounted the recovery in manufacturing suggested by recent surveys...
- ...But we think this apparent upturn reflects a rush of pre-tariff activity that will be short-lived.
- February’s Conference Board survey provided more evidence of consumer gloom.
Samuel TombsUS
