Pantheon Publications

9 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor This RBI pause will stick; prepare for a quiet year, barring any shocks

• The RBI pressed pause this month, and we believe it will be at least a year before we see any rate action.
• The 2025 Tet holiday flattered Vietnam’s trade data; exports continue to cool, but a soft landing is likely.
• Philippine sale s data indicate that the economy turned a corner in the middle of the abysmal Q4.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Big disinflation surprise, due to Lunar New Year noise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 February 2026

Indonesia’s dream of 6% for 2026 could become reality
Thai deflation now looks set to stick around until mid-year
Philippine inflation is back in the BSP’s range; still expecting a February cut

6 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's 'hot' Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one

• Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
• …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
• The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.

4 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor India's low-key budget a sign of the times, and generally welcome

• India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
• …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
• The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.

3 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan Q4 GDP hits a 21st-century high; our call was spot on

• Taiwan’s Q4 GDP growth surged to a blockbuster 12.7%, above the unjustifiable 8.8% consensus...
• …Exports did the heavy lifting, though even we were taken aback by the rebound in consumption.
• The MAS held policy steady; we see little need for tightening with imported inflation still non-existent.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 February 2026

Sturdy manufacturing momentum in ASEAN is holding up
Two-way trade in Indonesia ends 2025 on a solid note
A deceptively soft January headline CPI print in Indonesia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November 2025

• In one line: Returning to earth, again; other, more credible data show a decent Q4.

2 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ins-and-outs of Indonesia's equity market collapse; a good entry point?

• Indonesia’s soaring equities sold off sharply last week, threatened with a downgrade to ‘frontier’…
• …Fundamentally, the correction seems harsh, from the standpoint of improving ‘real’ economic activity.
• Thailand’s election at the end of this week still looks set to result in a fragile coalition government.