- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS RESILIENT...
- ...BUT CHALLENGES PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLICY FRONT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, CAUTIOUSLY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Home sales on course to fall back in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Net trade and equipment investment both set to drag on Q2 growth.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: A third straight fall led by a drop in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: M1 growth is rebounding, and the credit cycle is stabilising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Industrial profits hit by rising costs and dull demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
New home sales likely to remain subdued.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: In line with expectations despite political noise and floods.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We’re are lowering our Q2 GDP forecast to 1.0%, from 1.5%, due to May’s poor trade and orders data.
- We estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May; a run of sluggish increases beckons.
- Real consumption likely rose by 0.3% in May, with growth of less than 2% looking likely for this quarter.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s inflation remains under control in June, but the COPOM is still cautious given the uncertainty.
- Argentina’s GDP plunged in Q1 amid Mr. Milei’s structural adjustments to bring the economy back on track.
- His government faces economic challenges despite high approval and efforts to curb inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP’s rate hold yesterday was very dovish, and its rhetoric signals an August cut more clearly.
- The Board has taken the opportunity offered by the rice-tariff cut to recalibrate its cautious CPI bias…
- …Its risk-adjusted CPI forecasts are now snugly within the target range; GDP is back on the agenda.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Xinhua yesterday announced the reform-focused Third Plenum will be held on July 15-to-17.
- We expect pro-business and-innovation reforms but no fundamental shift to consumption-based growth.
- Industrial profits hit a soft patch in May, hurt by rising operating costs, despite improved revenue growth.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
- Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
- The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- All available polls suggest the Labour Party will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- Labour is proposing a credible strategy for boosting growth, but it will take time to bear fruit.
- Meanwhile, a slow-growing economy and implausible fiscal forecasts mean more borrowing and taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
