Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June 2024 - UK Chartbook

WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED

  • ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, CAUTIOUSLY

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders/Advance Goods Trade

Net trade and equipment investment both set to drag on Q2 growth.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 22

Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, June

In one line: A third straight fall led by a drop in manufacturing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, May 2024

In one line: M1 growth is rebounding, and the credit cycle is stabilising.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

  • In one line: A more dovish hold, unfazed by the peso’s wobble.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, June, 2024

  • In one line: In line with expectations despite political noise and floods.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 June 2024 US Monitor Terrible trade and capital goods data point to weak GDP growth in Q2

  • We’re are lowering our Q2 GDP forecast to 1.0%, from 1.5%, due to May’s poor trade and orders data.
  • We estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.11% in May; a run of sluggish increases beckons.
  • Real consumption likely rose by 0.3% in May, with growth of less than 2% looking likely for this quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

28 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation eases, but COPOM remains cautious amid uncertainty

  • Brazil’s inflation remains under control in June, but the COPOM is still cautious given the uncertainty.
  • Argentina’s GDP plunged in Q1 amid Mr. Milei’s structural adjustments to bring the economy back on track.
  • His government faces economic challenges despite high approval and efforts to curb inflation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP sets the stage and readies markets for its first cut

  • The BSP’s rate hold yesterday was very dovish, and its rhetoric signals an August cut more clearly.
  • The Board has taken the opportunity offered by the rice-tariff cut to recalibrate its cautious CPI bias…
  • …Its risk-adjusted CPI forecasts are now snugly within the target range; GDP is back on the agenda.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

28 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's Third Plenum likely to focus on business-friendly reforms

  • Xinhua yesterday announced the reform-focused Third Plenum will be held on July 15-to-17.
  • We expect pro-business and-innovation reforms but no fundamental shift to consumption-based growth.
  • Industrial profits hit a soft patch in May, hurt by rising operating costs, despite improved revenue growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Money supply data point to Q3 resilience in the EZ PMIs

  • Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
  • Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
  • The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 June 2024 UK Monitor Seven days to go; what will the election result bring?

  • All available polls suggest the Labour Party will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
  • Labour is proposing a credible strategy for boosting growth, but it will take time to bear fruit. 
  • Meanwhile, a slow-growing economy and implausible fiscal forecasts mean more borrowing and taxes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

June 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

THE ‘REAL’ ECONOMY WHICH LET DOWN MODI’S BJP

  • …NOTE THE NUANCE IN MALAYSIA’S DIESEL-SUBSIDY REFORM

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

June 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

STEADY GROWTH DESPITE STICKY RATES...

  • ...HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY TO ACCELERATE IN H2

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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