Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Festive demand lift ed consumers out of deflation, but it won’t stick without stronger underlying demand.
- PPI deflation moderated, but deeper manufacturing deflation shows China is not fully out of the woods.
- The inflation trajectory hinges on the economic recovery, stimulus strength and anti-involution progress.
- A Q4 supply crunch in EZ auto production is averted, but the Nexperia controversy could flare up again.
- EZ auto production fell sharply in Q3, but leading indicators are improving in Germany.
- Auto sales in the EZ slowed in Q3, and leading indicators point to continued sluggish growth in Q4.
- We expect GDP to rise by 0.1% in September, boosted by solid retail sales and car registrations.
- Industrial production likely cut 8bp from GDP growth in September as a cyber attack halted autos output.
- Resilient economic activity means the MPC has little scope to cut quickly in 2026, in our view.
In one line: Down but still consistent with faster GDP growth in Q4.
Reliability questionable, but grim reading nonetheless.
- In one line: Inflation eases, pointing to softer Q4 average.
- In one line: Inflation eases, pointing to softer Q4 average.
- In one line: Headline inflation drops again in October, supporting Banxico’s cautious easing path.
- In one line: Headline inflation drops again in October, supporting Banxico’s cautious easing path.
- In one line: Export growth continues to shock to the upside.
In one line: Exports to the US rebounding; deficit with China widening.
The Philippines’ Q3 GDP was ugly all around
Still no light at the end of the tunnel in the sales data
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
- Core inflation in Mexico remains stubborn near 4%, prompting Banxico to add a hawkish tilt to its tone.
- GDP growth is weakening as industry shrinks and consumption stagnates amid tighter credit conditions.
- Further rate cuts will hinge on stable inflation, fiscal prudence and limited trade disruption.
- GDP growth in the Philippines collapsed to a post-pandemic low of 4.0% in Q3, as investment tanked…
- …More capex weakness is likely ahead, as we’ve yet to see the full impact of the ICI’s scrutiny.
- We’ve downgraded our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP forecasts to just 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively.
- China’s arithmetic fall in exports in October is mainly due to calendar effects, rather than a demand slump.
- Shipments to non-US markets dropped sharply, while exports to the US were still weak but didn’t worsen.
- Export growth is likely to slow next year, given limited capacity for the Global South to absorb rapid rises.
- Swiss GDP is likely to have fallen outright in Q3, as US trade tariffs were hiked and unemployment rose.
- The ECB wage tracker implies EZ wage growth eased in Q3 and will slow further out to mid-2026.
- The ECB is not about to end QT, like the Fed; we expect a continued steady run-off, for now.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
- In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut.
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
