Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Nothing to see, the trend is flat.
- Households have delevered over the last five years and many have fixed-rate mortgages with low rates.
- Reducing the funds rate to 3% next year merely would stabilize the effective mortgage rate.
- The weakness in the ISM surveys in Q3 probably is understating the economy’s underlying momentum.
- A mining accident disrupted output in Chile, hurting activity, while commerce provided stability.
- Fiscal revenues rose on higher royalties and copper prices, though election-year spending risks persist.
- A right-wing political shift would bring business friendly reforms, likely boosting investor confidence.
- The RBI’s latest IOS shows that exporters, for now, remain largely unfazed by Trump’s 50% tariff…
- …Nevertheless, the actual industry assessment for Q3 shows further softening in output and orders.
- It’s early doors, but surveys show no aggregate price cuts in the pipeline in the wake of GST 2.0.
- Governor Ueda’s upbeat comments on the Q3 Tankan lay the ground for an October policy rate hike.
- Economic conditions are soft, and political and trade risks linger, but the BoJ is keen to normalise policy.
- The Bank is likely to recognise a window of opportunity amid relative market stability to normalise policy.
- Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
- ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
- Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.
- September’s weak PMI sharpens the downside risk to our calls, but we stick to 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.
- GDP growth was well balanced in H1, and credit flows point to solid private demand in Q3 too.
- Stubborn wages and inflation in the DMP, as spare capacity fails to open up, imply a cautious MPC.
INFLATION ABOVE 2% WILL KEEP THE ECB ON HOLD IN Q4
…THE EURO AND ENERGY PRICES ALLOWING
BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...
- …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE
- In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
In on line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity to remain weak in the second half of the year.
- In one line: House prices jump in September but we look for a subdued second half of the year.
Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
- In one line: Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
- The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies.
- Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
