- The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
- …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
- Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
- Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Friday’s PMIs confirmed the EZ economy was still is in a rut in December, pointing to falling GDP in Q4.
- The PMI input price component suggests EZ headline inflation will stabilise at just under 2% in H1 24.
- Accelerating third quarter growth in hourly labour costs is grist on ECB hawks’ mills.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Unwinding of the UAW strike hit boosts manufacturing, but output ex-autos remains weak.
US
In one line: Still-strong growth in labour costs; net trade on track for a rise in Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.
Samuel TombsGlobal
In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Consistent with our call that Germany is in a shallow recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Rapidly falling inflation and recessionary PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's economy treads water in November; steeper existing home price fall points to market clearing
Japanese manufacturing activity weakens but services rise
Duncan WrigleyChina+