- In one line: Surveys are playing ball, the hard data will follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction growth accelerates further, supporting the recovery from last year's recession.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
- The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
- The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
- The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
- Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
- The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
- Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
- The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
- We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: A mixed performance on a sequential basis, but downside risk
prevailing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private car sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Vehicle sales fail to offset retail weakness in Singapore.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Goods inflation U-turns, while services inflation remains sticky.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Decent, and it will get better still.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Focus on the upturn in core orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
- Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
- We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
