- The output price sub-indices of India’s July PMIs spike d, but it would be premature to raise a red flag.
- Indonesia’s July CPI should see inflation falling below the 2.5% target, on further food disinflation.
- We look for a small drop in ASEAN’s July PMI, as a couple of the big exporters look overstretched.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ will probably placate currency investors by cutting back bond-buying on Wednesday...
- ...But will likely stay put on the policy rate, in order to prop up growth and foster demand-pull inflation.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged down in July, though core inflation excluding fresh food inched up.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Brace for the Q2 GDP data and July inflation figures, after a busy week for surveys last week.
- EZ headline inflation likely was unchanged in July, but we think core inflation dipped further.
- Italy’s first survey data for July were not as downbeat as those for France and Germany.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth continues to outperform consensus estimates and MPC projections.
- Services inflation remains elevated and is overshooting forecasts by a widening margin.
- We think the MPC will wait and cut Bank Rate in September, but it is a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Edging down, in line with deteriorating overall business sentiment in France and Germany
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, but unemployment fears are creeping higher.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo consumer inflation unlikely to trouble the BoJ
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A big bounce in net goods trade will help Thailand's Q2 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC as inflation slows but employment and business confidence surge.
Samuel TombsUK
HOUSE PRICES DEFY HIGH INTEREST RATES...
- ...WE EXPECT 4% HOUSE-PRICE INFLATION IN 2024
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: CBI orders and prices fall in July, but both should rebound in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
The PBoC's surprise MLF rate cut rams home China's re-orientation towards short-term growth support; fiscal policy tweaks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Still pointing to an improvement in growth, in contrast to the business surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Hit to Q2 GDP growth from net trade probably offset by inventories and investment.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
