In one line: Staying where it's been for most of the past year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
PMIs point to services sector buoyancy in China and Japan
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The plunge in ISM services prices paid to a four-year low points to much slower core services inflation.
- Light vehicle sales slumped in Q1, dragging on overall consumption growth.
- Initial jobless claims likely rose modestly last week, but a sharp increase is likely in the coming months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
- Mexican Peso — Outperforming amid attractive carry
- Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC expects.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation account for most of the slowdown in March.
- Services inflation likely matched the MPC’s forecast of 5.8% in March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ inflation on track to undershoot the consensus tomorrow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- U.S. - Core PCE back on track following the January jump
- EUROZONE - EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?
- U.K. - House prices to rise 4% in 2024 as confidence returns
- CHINA+ - China’s residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet
- EM ASIA - Firmer external demand should power up Singapore’s Q1 GDP
- LATAM - Disinflation continues in Brazil, despite food-related pressures
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Almost back to growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Small correction in March is just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still a minor technical recession last year, but the economy is already rebounding.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
