Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
- Policy U-turns, a small growth downgrade and higher gilt yields will consume the Chancellor’s headroom.
- We expect the Chancellor to rebuild her £9.9B margin of headroom with stealth, ‘sin’ and duty hikes.
- The Budget will have a minimal impact on the MPC as the adjustments will be backloaded to 2029/30.
- In one line: Caused mainly by more moderate primary articles deflation; still tepid, overall.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's August broad activity cooling likely to prompt additional targeted support
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.
In one line: A cyclical low; a gentle rebound now lies ahead.
In one line: A further near-term rise is coming before a plunge in early 2026.
- A 25bp easing this week is highly likely, but the vote probably will be split three ways.
- Committee members are still divided on whether rising inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk...
- ...That discord will rule out clear guidance on future easing, though markets will still price-in a big shift.
- Markets reeled as political setback exposed fragility in Argentina’s macro backdrop and reform credibility.
- Inflation is slowing, but ARS pressure, weak activity, and tight reserves complicate policy execution.
- October elections will test Milei’s mandate and determine the durability of his economic program.
- Emerging Asian countries have announced national strategies to enter the semiconductor market.
- We think they will be unlikely to gain a meaningful foothold in manufacturing semiconductors.
- If they play to their strengths, however, they could attract capital to other parts of the supply chain.
- China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
- Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
- No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.
- Fiscal easing to reduce energy prices will lower German inflation by 0.4-to-0.5pp in January.
- Eurozone employment growth eased in Q2, continuing the downward trend since 2022…
- …Hiring is falling in manufacturing and agriculture, even as it holds up well in construction and services.
- GDP was unchanged in July as an erratic fall in industrial output offset rising services.
- Underlying GDP growth looks solid to us; little spare capacity will emerge in the economy.
- We expect a hawkish week ahead, with the August data to show stabilising jobs and rising inflation.
Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.
Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.
In one line: The ECB is happy at 2%, for now.
In one line: The ECB is happy at 2%, for now.
