Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...
Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers.
Weak September sales are a sign of what's to come.
Core PCE inflation set to undershoot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4.
- Early signs suggest there could be a moderation in Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, but risks are to the upside.
- In the longer term, supply side factors are likely to weigh on growth, due to poor capital stock growth.
- That said, we see the government pulling numerous policy levers to raise this.
- China’s new promotion scheme to raise consumption issued yesterday is old wine in new wineskins.
- The scheme focuses on boosting supply, without addressing the root causes of dull consumer demand.
- Bright spots amid the gloom include rising spending on consumer services, like sports and tourism.
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
- A tax-and-spend budget that delayed fiscal consolidation will struggle to drive a sustained gilt rally.
- Measures to cut CPI inflation by 50bp in mid-2026 leave a December rate cut nailed on…
- …but the Budget will boost the MPC’s inflation forecasts fractionally from 2027.
- In one line: Motor sales contract a lot less.
In one line: Stabilising, but downside risks loom.
In one line: Stung by falling consumption and another hit from falling net trade.
Thailand's bigger-than-expected October deficit masks resurgent US exports
- US - Rising unemployment keeps a December FOMC easing in play
- EUROZONE - Inflation still on track to keep the ECB on hold in December
- UK - Week in review: hello December MPC rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market still has a way to go until recovery
- EM ASIA - India’s record trade deficit in October mainly an import story
- LATAM - Mexico’s recovery stalls as technical recession looms in H2
- PPI and CPI data imply the core PCE deflator rose by just 0.22% in September.
- Goods price rises are slowing and retailers, especially auto retailers, are still partially absorbing the tariffs.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey implies the labor market need more support from the FOMC.
- Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s
data-dependent easing.
- Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
- Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
- The Chancellor will likely to confirm a 4.1% rise in the National Living Wage in the Budget…
- …But 18-to-20-year-olds will see a much bigger rise, while the ‘Real Living Wage’ increases 6.7%.
- The BoE now expects a 3.5% rise in pay settlements in 2025, likely supported by hikes for the low paid.
- We look for a subpar 0.3% increase in September retail sales, consistent with real spending edging down.
- Food service sales likely fell sharply, while the more reliable indicators of control sales were soft.
- Bloomberg Second Measure data, Google search volumes and hotel room occupancy signal a weak Q4.
- Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
- Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
- High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.
