In one line: Tokyo inflation dips in September as energy subsidies reinstated; Underlying inflation remains resilient
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's industrial profit growth sees sharpest fall in 18 months; Japan's Tokyo CPI dips as energy subsidies reinstated
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea 20-day export growth remained resilient on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea 20-day export growth remained resilient on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Weaker car shipments and US demand drag Japan’s exports in August.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Weaker car shipments and US demand drag Japan’s exports in August.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Strong government bond issuance cushions overall credit growth, but only modest signs that existing fiscal stimulus is gaining traction
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Indian CPI predictably bounced sharply last month as favourable food base effects waned further…
- …Short-term food-price pressures are still broadly improving, and CPI expectations pose no worries.
- IP growth saw red ink in August for the first time since late-2022; the outlook remains grim.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s consumer prices are on the brink of deflation while producer price deflation is deepening.
- September’s core inflation slowed to just above zero percent, suggesting muted domestic demand.
- Efficient implementation of existing stimulus should support growth, but more fiscal stimulus is needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ corporate profit margins are falling rapidly, underpinning continued ECB policy easing.
- A decline in work-hours since Covid partly explains labour-hoarding in the Eurozone…
- …But fears of labour shortages when the cycle rebounds and no recession are likely bigger drivers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect a stimulatory Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30.
- A growth-boosting Budget should limit the MPC to cutting interest rates only once per quarter.
- Markets will be unruffled by a modest change to Ms. Reeves’ fiscal rules, so gilt yields could fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Primary articles inflation bounces on lower base effects, but underlying inflation remains muted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Consumers remain relatively upbeat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: On hold, as inflation likely to increase marginally in Q4 due to base effects.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The headline trade deficit narrows because of erratics and metals.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:August’s GDP rebound underwhelmed, cutting our Q3 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: On hold, as inflation likely to increase marginally in Q4 due to base effects.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
