- In on line: A hawkish hold, prioritising inflation anchoring, and restoring credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Export growth surprises to the upside, as electronics roar ahead
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- Falling hirings and rising firings are a toxic combination; job growth looks set to slow sharply.
- May building permits suggest residential construction spending is falling at a 10% annualized pace.
- Existing home sales likely were unchanged in May; Fed rate cuts will facilitate only a sluggish recovery.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered a hawkish hold, prioritising anchoring inflation, and restoring credibility.
- Chile’s central bank continued gradual rate cuts amid inflation concerns and improving economic activity.
- Both Banks will face an improved global scenario by year-end, broadening their policy manoeuvrability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysia’s export growth surprised to the upside in May, thanks to a sharp rise in electronics exports…
- …This more than compensated for a fall in commodity exports and a drag from re-exports.
- Adverse base effects aside, electronics exports still has more fuel in the tank for a further recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
- The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
- We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: House prices keep rising despite higher mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Persistent services inflation means more delay to rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Q1 wasn’t as good as previously thought, and output will fall back in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by a rebound in the surpluses of goods and services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU
Duncan WrigleyChina+