Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

14 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Too early to declare victory in Taiwan's battle against inflation

  • The CBC made no change to its policy rate yesterday, but raised its RRR by 0.25pp...
  • ...To stymie the flow of credit to the property sector, which has brushed off previous cooling measures.
  • We expect the CBC to stay on hold, but upside risks to inflation might provoke another hike in Q3.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 June 2024 China+ Monitor China likely to opt for targeted response to EU tariffs on EVs

  • China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
  • Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
  • May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

14 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will consumption growth save the day for Italy's economy?

  • Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
  • ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
  • We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2024 UK Monitor MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut

  • We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
  • Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
  • We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US PPI, June 2024

June core PCE likely rose just 0.15%; the Fed can prepare the ground for a September rate cut.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

Global Datanote: US CPI, May

Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, April 2024

  • In one line: Not a lot happening once we look through the noise from erratics, gold and fuel.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP April 2024

  • In one line: Flat GDP is a result, leaving the economy on track to grow 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: May CPI & April IP, India

  • In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: May CPI & April IP, India

  • In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Nasty, especially in the core, but it’ll get better soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2024 US Monitor The Fed's hawkish dotplot is likely to have a short shelf life

  • The Fed’s hawkish dotplot is likely to have a short shelf life; the data will force faster easing than they expect.
  • The May core CPI slowdown was deep-rooted; we expect just 0.20% average gains through year-end.
  •  CPI data signal a 0.16% rise in the core PCE deflator, but we will finalize our estimate after today’s PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

13 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Global and domestic political uncertainty continue to drive markets

  • Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
  • Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
  • Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Charting the BoT's apparent complacency on GDP growth

  • The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50%; dissenting votes for a 25bp cut fell to one, from two.
  • Growth is the area that is most likely to disappoint, relative to the MPC’s rose-tinted expectations…
  • …Its reasons for optimism are short-lived in nature; we still consider two 25bp cuts this year possible. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's consumer inflation steadies, pointing to weak domestic demand

  • China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
  • Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
  • More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

13 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor EU tariffs on Chinese EVs are not the start of a trade war

  • The EU is about to hit Chinese EV producers with tariffs, but this is not a full-blown trade war. 
  • Services inflation is rising, judging by German May CPI, but leading indicators point to weakness soon. 
  • German bond yields should fall between now and end-2024, but they will rebound next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2024 UK Monitor Steady April GDP is a good result given retail sales tanked

  • We think unchanged GDP month-to-month in April signals a strong underlying trend.
  • GDP held steady despite erratic and rain-disrupted sectors slicing 0.4pp off month-to-month growth.
  • We upgrade our growth forecast to 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.2% call.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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