- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
- …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
- We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth drives a consumer upturn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales will bounce back from April's collapse as consumer confidence improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A reassuring bounce in exports narrows the Songkran-adjusted deficit substantially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Construction and net trade propelled growth in Q1; neither will last.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan’s consumer inflation still cooling, as the BoJ monitors wage inflation and the impact of the weak JPY
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s manufacturing activity expands for the first time in a year, largely driven by improvements in output and new orders.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The Bank of Korea stands pat in May, citing upside risks to inflation
Japan’s manufacturing activity expands for the first time in a year, largely driven by improvements in output and new orders.
Services activity continues to grow at solid pace in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The drop in sales is probably noise, but the underlying trend is weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US