Pantheon Publications

17June 2025 China+ Monitor China's activity data reveal pockets of slack, despite policy support

• China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
• Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
• Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.

17 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out

• The SNB is sure to ease this Thursday, and more analysts have joined us in expecting a sub-zero rate.
• Strength in EURUSD is supported by leading indicators, but the recent rally will fade soon.
• Disinflation in core goods from EURUSD at 1.15 is trivial, despite the ECB’s stringent forecast rules.

17 June 2025 UK Monitor Long-term inflation expectations are too high

• Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
• Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
• Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.

PM Datanote: US PPI, May

Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, May

• In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, April / May 2025

• In one line: A dovish release that raises the chance of the MPC easing policy again in August.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2025

• In one line: BRC retail sales growth stronger than the headline suggests, consumer spending will remain robust.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: A one-year high.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, April 2025

In one line: Up sharply.

Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

Global Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, May

In one line : China's services activity ticks up, but deflationary pressure still lurking in the background.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, April

In one line : Japanese inflation continues to outpace labour earnings; BoJ likely to hold rates in June.

June 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

IGNORE THE STAMP-DUTY-INDUCED PULLBACK...

• ...HOUSE PRICES WILL STILL GAIN 4.5% IN 2025