Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, June 7

More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.

17 June 2025 US Monitor Will new FOMC forecasts shift markets' pricing of further easing?

  • The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
  • ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
  • The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.

17 June 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation rises again in May; Banxico to ease cautiously

  • Sticky services and volatile food prices cloud Banxico’s outlook, despite weaker domestic demand.
  • Disinflation will resume soon, allowing Banxico to proceed with gradual rate cuts.
  • Brazil’s economic growth is slowing in Q2, as agriculture normalises and tight financial conditions bite.

17June 2025 China+ Monitor China's activity data reveal pockets of slack, despite policy support

  • China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
  • Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
  • Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.

17 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out

  • The SNB is sure to ease this Thursday, and more analysts have joined us in expecting a sub-zero rate.
  • Strength in EURUSD is supported by leading indicators, but the recent rally will fade soon.
  • Disinflation in core goods from EURUSD at 1.15 is trivial, despite the ECB’s stringent forecast rules.

17 June 2025 UK Monitor Long-term inflation expectations are too high

  • Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
  • Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
  • Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.

PM Datanote: US CPI, May

Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.

PM Datanote: US PPI, May

Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, May

  • In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, April / May 2025

  • In one line: A dovish release that raises the chance of the MPC easing policy again in August.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2025

  • In one line: BRC retail sales growth stronger than the headline suggests, consumer spending will remain robust.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

China+ Datanote: Flash Services PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May

China+ Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.

Global Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, May

In one line: China's monthly exports rebounded in May, thanks to tariff reprieve.

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rise modestly as bond revaluation offsets inflows

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subscribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence