Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- - CHINA DOUBLING DOWN ON MANUFACTURING-LED MODEL
- - JAPAN’S NEW PRIME MINISTER LIKELY TO MODERATE POLICY
- - BOK SHOULD LEAN TOWARDS EASING IN NOVEMBER
- In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.
Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.
- We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
- Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
- The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.
- President Trump met PM Takaichi in Tokyo, marking the start of a new 'golden age' for US-Japan relations.
- The BoJ held rates in October, citing the ongoing trade uncertainty and need to monitor wage trends.
- A next hike in Q1 seems more probable now, as rhetoric teeing up a December move was lacking.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
- Markets need to prepare for major changes to the MPC’s flagship publications, the MPR and minutes…
- …Chief Economist Pill outlined the changes, which amount to downplaying the central forecasts further.
- A manifesto-breaking income-tax hike is more likely, with rumours of a larger OBR productivity downgrade.
In one line: Growth slows but Spain still outperforming.
- In one line: On hold, waiting for clearer disinflation.
- In one line: On hold, waiting for clearer disinflation.
- Chair Powell has jolted markets by saying a December easing is “not a foregone conclusion, far from it”...
- ...But most hiring indicators still point to near-stagnant payrolls; post-shutdown data will spur more easing.
- October’s regional Fed surveys point to flat employment demand and slower wage growth ahead.
- President Xi’s commentary on Tuesday confirms an industry-first view of growth...
- ...with the domestic economy serving mainly as a hedge against external uncertainties.
- China will stick to manufacturing-led growth, with only modest support for domestic demand and property.
- Healthy credit flows imply businesses and consumers remain confident ahead of the Budget…
- …and mortgage approvals rising to a nine-month high suggests the housing market is still solid.
- Rumours of a larger productivity downgrade by the OBR make an income-tax hike more likely.
In one line: Lending standards tightened again, but demand for loans is still rising, just.
In one line: Italian GDP growth will pick up in Q4; Inflation expectations stabilising at a high level.
In one line: Stung by volatility income expectations, again.
- US - Falling core services inflation to allow extended FOMC easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Not much for the ECB to talk about tomorrow; all eyes on December
- UK - Week in review: December rate-cut call, but reasons for caution still
- CHINA+ - US-China agree broad framework for trade ahead of Xi-Trump meet-up
- EM ASIA - A surprise hold, but BI isn’t done; we still see a cut to 4.50% by year-end
- LATAM - Policy shift nears in Brazil as disinflation deepens; Milei’s win
- Conference Board job availability little changed in October, signalling a mere 50K rise in private jobs.
- New weekly ADP data are likely to mislead to an even greater extent than the long-running monthly series.
- A 25bp easing in the funds rate is almost certain today; Powell to be non-committal amid lack of data.
- The job market is softening in Mexico as weak growth and investment weigh on employment creation.
- Brazil’s unemployment rate remains close to lows, but beneath the surface it is gradually cooling…
- …This resilience masks weakening fundamentals as high real rates and fading fiscal buffers bite.
- The ECB BLS showed banks tightened lending standards in Q3, boding ill for capex and spending…
- ...But these downbeat messages can safely be ignored, given other survey data.
- The first business survey for Italy for October suggests growth there is picking up, as in Germany.
