- BoE Governor Bailey’s Guardian interview has raised the risk of rate cuts at consecutive MPC meetings.
- We expect the MPC to cut once a quarter, but see four rate cuts in 2025 from three previously.
- We expect higher inflation than the MPC, growth remains solid and MPC guidance is for gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI surges as lower borrowing costs and optimism boost activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Spanish industry entered recession in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Q3 will be better than expected for French industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Below-target range inflation effectively guarantees another BSP cut this month
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Still consistent with further falls in services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Recruitment difficulties ease but inflation and wage growth prove stubbornly elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil’s industrial output inches up in August, highlighting ongoing economic challenges.
- Moody’s upgrades Brazil’s credit rating, boosting confidence in economic reforms.
- Peru’s inflation rate drops to 1.8%, paving the way for further interest rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss inflation fell below 1% in September for the first time since 2021.
- Inflation averaged 1.1% in Q3, in line with the SNB’s call, but will fall further than the Bank expects in Q4.
- The door is wide open for further rate cuts; the SNB could take its key policy rate close to zero.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
- It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A modest recovery but downside risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
