Pantheon Publications

25 June 2025 UK Monitor Labour market continues to ease gradually, but the worst is over

• Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
• The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
• Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April 2025

• In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2025

• In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, May 2025

• In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, June 2025

• In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, May

Sales likely to continue to stagnate.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, April, 2025

• In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index and retail sales, Mexico, April, 2025

• In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, June 2025

• In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes. 

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, May 2025

• In one line:Retail sales tank in May but will rebound.

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, June 2025

• In one line: Activity rises and price pressures fall, but geopolitical stress a rising worry.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, EZ, June 2025

In one line: Holding steady

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, June 2025

In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

June 2025 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
• - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
• - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY