In one line: Q3 carry-over looks o.k., but survey data remains depressed.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services inflation revised down marginally; headline to fall further in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Front-running a near-certain cut by the Fed later today; at least one more to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil — Fiscal and policy challenges
- Mexico — Judicial reforms heighten political risk
- Colombia — Political turmoil clouds the economic outlook
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia surprised yesterday by starting its easing cycle, hours ahead of the Fed’s own first cut.
- We’ve added a few more rate cuts to our outlook, and now see the BI rate ending 2025 at 4.75%.
- Blame a gold rush for India’s deficit blowout in August, which masked a few key silver linings.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year.
- Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4.
- An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Underlying services inflation pressures continue to ease, so the MPC will cut rates again this year.
- But August’s CPI inflation gives the MPC little reason to rush to cut today; it will wait until November.
- Core CPI inflation jumped to 3.6% in August, which we think was close to the MPC’s expectation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Lower rates put a floor under new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Strong headline numbers, but a grim near-term outlook.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Post-duty cut spike in gold imports hits the deficit hard, overshadowing a more confident recovery in real import demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Down to a four-month low, thanks to a broad-based deceleration.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid month for exports, but downside risks linger.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A solid month of August for Indonesian exports, but downside risks linger
Recovery in Singapore's semiconductor exports cushions August headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
- The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
- The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America