Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI, August

An unreliable bellwether for the national picture.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Q2 GDP and July Core Production, India

• In one line: Unwinding of discrepancy boost in Q2 hides early signs of a revival in consumption.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, July

Undershooting the Fed’s June core PCE forecast for the third straight month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, August 2024

In one line: Rising services sentiment boosts the headline aggregate index.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, July

In one line:   Edging down to a record low.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, August

In one line: Steady; leading indicators point to a renewed increase soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation/Consumers Spending, France, August/July

In one line:  Olympics pulled services prices higher but headline inflation still dropped 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, July 2024

• In one line: Lower mortgage interest rates boost the housing market.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

• In one line: Continue to ignore; households are still struggling.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, August 2024

• In one line: House prices drop unexpectedly in August, but should rebound as borrowing costs fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, July

Housing market activity likely to remain very weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, July

Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, August 2024

• In one line: Consumers' confidence unchanged in August, but it will improve from here.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, August 24

The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

EZ Datanote: EC ESI, EZ, August 2024

In one line:  Up, like the PMI; inflation expectations remain anchored.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 September 2024 US Monitor Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum

• The core PCE deflator undershot the Fed’s forecast yet again in July; expect more benign prints in H2.
• Recent strength in consumption lacks solid foundations; the saving rate will be higher a year from now.
• The ISM probably remained soft in August, pointing to weak growth in manufacturing employment

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

3 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's core inflation hits the target, enabling BCRP to ease further

• 
  Peru’s inflation is easing, as the core rate has hit BCRP’s target; it likely will continue to cut rates.
• Chile’s economic activity rebounded in July, but challenges are persisting in key sectors.
• Colombia’s labour market is sending mixed signals amid an uneven economic recovery.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America