Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2025

In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 June 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely slowed in May, ahead of a bigger deceleration

We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.

Samuel TombsUS

3 June 2025 LatAm Monitor Solid start for Chile's Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru

Mining and services offset weak industrial output in Chile, providing a solid base for Q2 growth.
Business sentiment improved slightly but remains fragile, with construction still the weakest link.
Peru’s inflation is well under control, led by cheaper food and fuel prices; the BCRP is likely to cut soon.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The bad and the good of Indonesia's shrinking trade surplus

The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
…Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 June 2025 China+ Monitor Korea heads to the polls amid economic and trade uncertainty

Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss and Italian economies set to slow over the coming quarters

The 0.3% increase in Italian GDP in Q1 was driven by both domestic demand and net trade.
In Switzerland, it was just domestic demand that pushed GDP up by a whopping 0.8% on the quarter.
Growth is now slowing in both economies, though risks to our H2 calls are likely to the upside.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 June 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending rather than saving

Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK