Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Indonesia’s main inflation gauges were unchanged in August: the headline at 2.1% and core at 2.0%…
- …But food inflation remains a big drag and will likely pull the headline below 1.5% at the turn of the year.
- The budget deficit has ballooned this year, but 2025 looks set to see only marginal subsidy reductions.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s August manufacturing PMIs remained at a low ebb, with a modest uptick in the Caixin gauge.
- Weakening export orders suggest China cannot count on external demand to hit its growth target.
- Falling special-bond funds for new project investment is dragging on infrastructure investment.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The small 0.2% q/q increase in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade held back growth...
- ...But so did construction investment, where dwellings investment is falling.
- Both trends will be offset by a rebound in inventories and stronger consumers’ spending in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Brazil’s labour market showed resilience in H1, yet signs of a gradual slowdown are starting to emerge.
- Leading indicators signal the labour market is plateauing, due to tighter financial conditions.
- Industrial gains offset consumption challenges in Chile; the recovery remains sluggish.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s Q2 GDP was hit largely by the unwinding of the discrepancy boost, hiding a consumer bump.
- The Q3 PMIs so far point to a further slowdown, and business expectations continue to sour rapidly.
- The pressure on households persists, but the gap between liabilities and asset growth is closing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s controversial ‘housing pension’ scheme rollout highlights the cost of an aging housing stock.
- Homeowners worry they will have to foot more of the bill for maintaining housing; another reason to save.
- Q2 credit data suggest the game plan to hit “about 5%” GDP growth this year is running into obstacles.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ inflation fell to its lowest since July 2021 in August, marginally above the ECB’s target...
- ...The Bank will find it hard to justify its current restrictive stance, especially with wage growth easing.
- We think a September rate cut is more likely than not and keep our October cut in too, for now.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumers and firms seem gradually to be shifting behaviour in response to expected interest rate cuts.
- Households raised liquid assets by the least in 11 months, and mortgage approvals jumped.
- Smoothing through volatility, corporates have been raising net external finance since March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The small recent rise in continuing claims suggests July’s unemployment rate was overestimated.
- We are pencilling in a 0.1pp dip in the rate to 4.2% in August, despite the worsening trend.
- The rapid 2.9% growth in consumers’ spending in Q2 looks unsustainable; expect a sharp slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s latest data paint a picture of a struggling economy, with risks tilted to the downside.
- We expect the BCCh to resume rate cuts to support the economic upturn, but electricity tariffs pose a risk.
- Improving external demand, rate cuts and Fed easing will support the economic recovery in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Spanish inflation was pulled down sharply in August by falling energy inflation.
- The German headline also took a leg down, to a 41-month low, despite stable services inflation.
- We now think EZ inflation data today will show a 2% print for August; EZ inflation is at the ECB’s target.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem announced a 9.5% utility price-cap increase for October, fractionally lower than we expected.
- Accordingly, we edge down our December CPI inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.
- Wholesale energy futures prices and geopolitical risk point to further utility-bill hikes in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: HICP inflation below consensus in Spain and in Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- An October cut is our base case, with a month’s delay if the BoK needs more time to monitor financial risks.
- Korea’s 20-day export data indicate solid external demand for full-month August, due to the chip cycle.
- Renewed EU demand more than offset slowing ASEAN exports; China is the biggest downside risk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
BSP PULLS THE TRIGGER ON RATE CUTS
- …INDIA’S FINAL 2024/25 BUDGET IS NO GAME-CHANGER
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for little change in in initial jobless claims today, and a run of lower numbers this fall…
- …Leading indicators have improved and the seasonals will help; but lower hiring will slow job gains.
- The hit to growth from the rising trade deficit will be offset by boosts from inventories and investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Money data suggest the savings rate is no longer rising, pointing to a pick-up in spending…
- ...Lending and credit figures are also turning up, consistent with stronger investment growth.
- For how long will money data remain positive? We see nascent signs they will turn down soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Gilt yields have fallen sharply at the short end of the curve since the MPC cut rates in August.
- But we make minimal changes to our gilt yield forecasts, as the fundamental drivers are unchanged.
- The market continues to function well, and buyers have been attracted back to gilts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Fall in real money continues to slow.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone