- The regional Fed surveys suggest services sector growth in slowing rather than collapsing...
- ...But employment growth in many services industries probably will be much weaker in Q3.
- Limited services inflation and wage growth will allow the Fed to respond with easier policy, eventually.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The ECB’s measure of consumer inflation expectations in one year’s time rose again in April.
- Other measures are stable, while various data point to general economic weakness…
- ...So, we reiterate our call for the ECB to cut twice more this year, in June and July.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Falling energy consumption will weigh on spending in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
