Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
- The ONS revised down borrowing by £4.2B, as an error in the collection of VAT receipts was corrected…
- …But borrowing is still £7.2B higher than the OBR forecast for the first half of fiscal year 2025/26.
We expect £33B of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget, back-loaded to 2029/30.
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- The weakening dollar means that DXY is no longer overshooting its long-term link with Treasury yields.
- ...But further fiscal easing and politicization of the Fed are key downside risks for the dollar in 2026.
- Housing inflation likely has further to fall, given the renewed drop in rental growth in recent months.
- Argentina has secured US support as elections near, but political uncertainty is keeping markets on edge.
- The swap deal buys time, yet weak demand and fiscal pressures are weighing on the outlook.
- Peru’s economy is maintaining solid growth despite political instability and pre-election uncertainty.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- GDP in Germany and Italy likely improved relative to Q2, but growth in France and Spain probably fell.
- EZ GDP growth is likely to have held steady, at just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Q4 is set to be a touch better, as the drag from net trade fades, thanks to falling imports.
- We have thrown in the towel and include in our forecasts a cut to energy bills in November’s Budget.
- All told, we lower our inflation forecast by 16bp for one year from April 2026.
- We struggle to see the Chancellor freezing fuel duty completely though, given the £5B-per-year cost.
In one line: Significant back revisions mean Q3 was likely better than Q2.
- In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
Rebound in mining and quarrying boosts Malaysia’s Q3 GDP past expectations
Export growth accelerates to one of the fastest rates this year
- Mexico’s industrial output fell, as mining and construction wiped out fragile manufacturing gains.
- The job market is cooling and falling remittances are squeezing incomes, hurting private consumption.
- Fiscal stimulus and Banxico rate cuts will cushion growth, but recovery prospects remain fragile.
- Regional banks are under renewed scrutiny, oil prices have tumbled, and the shutdown is going long...
- ...So markets are starting to see a meaningful chance of a 50bp easing in December.
- But timely data imply the labor market and GDP growth are holding up; 25bp is still more likely.
- Malaysia’s Q3 GDP growth shocked to the upside, powered by a rebound in mining and quarrying...
- ...But weak commodity exports suggest stockpiling or soaring domestic energy demand.
- Electrical and electronics exports are heating up, which could point to a rise in the Q4 GDP print.
- China’s next Five-Year Plan will focus on long-term strategies in high-tech, energy, and national security…
- …As well as adherence to dual circulation, and maybe an industrial plan to succeed ‘Made in China 2025’.
- China’s consumers and producers are still mired in deflation despite recent improvements.
- EZ inflation rose a touch in September, and the core was revised higher, matching our initial forecast.
- Headline and core inflation will dip in October but then rebound, meaning no rate cut in December.
- Markets are eyeing a rate cut in early 2026, but we think the ECB will opt to stay on hold at 2%.
- We now expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in February; previously we expected no change.
- Our rate call change is tactical—five MPC doves seem keen—as sticky inflation requires caution.
- Our hotel price tracker suggests limited impact from the tube strike, but the risk is for a 4.1% inflation print.
In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
