- Leading indicators suggest that the upturn in initial claims in recent months is petering out.
- But the slowdown in employment growth will likely continue, as companies continue to reduce hiring.
- Benchmark payroll revisions are unforecastable, but have been small in recent years.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Both export and import growth in Malaysia beat consensus by a large margin in July…
- …But the stronger surge in import growth resulted in the trade surplus more than halving.
- Smaller trade surpluses are likely to be typical in H2, but a pick-up in real activity should support GDP.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ inflation data suggest market pricing for 70bp-worth of easing this year is much too ambitious.
- The ECB will cut by 25bp in September; we still see a second cut in October, but this is a very close call.
- Inflation in food, core goods and energy are all set to firm in Q4, and services inflation will fall only slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ONS Blue Book revisions raised the level of GDP in Q4 2022 by 0.8%.
- Statistician’s will publish full revisions up to the latest data in Q2 2024 on September 30.
- Revisions to growth two years ago will have little effect on monetary or fiscal policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Energy inflation will back in August and September; the core will remain high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Energy inflation will back in August and September; the core will remain high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A record high, but not sustainable; net portfolio flows are shifting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: China’s loan prime rates unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s LPRs unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Slowing industrial production highlights China’s slumping property sector and rising trade frictions
China’s retail sales rebound in July, but weak consumer confidence and property woes weigh on growth
Fixed investment falters amid infrastructure slowdown and weak private investment
China’s property sales activity and price growth remain weak
PBoC shifts to new monetary framework: MLF operations to be carried out on 25th of every month
Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s TSF data suggest weak demand for loans in the real economy
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Our Homebase model points to a 250K jump in August private payrolls, which looks implausible.
- Other labor market indicators are far less upbeat; we have pencilled in an increase of 125K.
- We expect a meagre rise in government payrolls this month, and see a sharp slowdown ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Thailand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, despite a hefty—but unsustainable—bounce in exports…
- …External demand looks set to stay lacklustre into 2025, weighing further on already-weak capex.
- We remain downbeat on growth, and still see the BoT cutting rates twice before year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Negotiated wage growth likely eased in Q2 even as compensation per employee probably held steady.
- Hourly labour cost data are the wild card; we doubt they will prevent an ECB cut in September...
- ...But early Q3 indicators, pointing to a rebound in wage growth, cast a shadow over a cut in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC has shifted its focus away from inflation and wages to broader economic scenarios.
- Even rate-setters voting for an August cut placed considerable weight on the more hawkish scenario.
- Reduced data-sensitivity and the scenarios suggest gradual rate cuts, with the next one in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Surplus more than halves, but little reason for concern.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Unsustainable export bounce saves Thai Q2 GDP; domestic demand still lethargic
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A weather-related plunge in July, but residential construction set for a weak Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
