- In one line: The BSP pulls the trigger… more—and potentially larger—cuts to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Small surplus isn’t actually that bad, while the stellar y/y rates need to be put into context.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The BSP pulls the trigger… more—and potentially larger—cuts to come in Q4
Indonesia’s small trade surplus isn’t actually that bad, while the stellar y/y rates need to be put into context
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Resilient to weak German activity and much better than we anticipated.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Another month of “good data”, implying a 0.13% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Retail sales were strong in July, but weak consumer fundamentals still point to a slowdown ahead.
- The fall in initial claims distracts from the slowly rising trend; expect higher prints ahead.
- We think housing starts dipped in July, as rising inventory drove a drop in single-family construction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BSP started easing policy yesterday; we now expect much larger 50bp cuts from December.
- The ousting of Thai PM Srettha will weigh further on the capex recovery and silence some MPC hawks.
- Indonesia’s July trade data were very mixed; don’t read much into the upside and downside surprises.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- July activity data was unspectacular, with slowing growth in FAI and production and weak retail sales.
- China's fixed investment growth fell unexpectedly, with infrastructure investment the main drag.
- FAI growth would have been weaker without the contribution from equipment replacement plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
- EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
- Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP was unchanged month-to-month in June and grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q2 as expected.
- Growth will slow in H2 2024, but consumer spending should keep the economy expanding solidly.
- We see upside risks to our forecast for 1.2% year- over-year GDP growth in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise again in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Q2 GDP increase confirmed, despite another drag from industry.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Encouraging wage slowdown but recovering jobs growth will keep the labour market tight.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - July core CPI data to leave the door wide open to rapid Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Is the Taylor Rule back as a forecasting tool in the Eurozone?
- UK - CPI preview: CPI inflation likely to rise to 2.3% in July
- CHINA+ - China’s inflation data confirm sluggish demand
- EM ASIA - Ignore the hype, consumption in the Philippines is in recession
- LATAM - Tackling inflation in Mexico and Chile is becoming difficult
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The July CPI and PPI data collectively point to a mere 0.13% increase in the core PCE deflator...
- ...But seasonal adjustment now might be flattering the data; the dip in CPI hospital prices will unwind.
- We look today for a fall in July manufacturing output and a slight increase in initial jobless claims.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The 0.3% increase in Eurozone GDP in Q2 was confirmed, despite industry remaining in recession.
- The service sector again drove growth; we do not trust the reported fall in service production in May.
- Productivity is not sliding as fast as in recent quarters; the ECB will welcome this development.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Stronger utility price inflation boosted CPI inflation to 2.2% year-over-year in July.
- Services inflation fell to 5.2%, below the consensus, 5.5%, driven by erratic airfares and hotel prices.
- Gradually slowing services inflation points to more rate cuts, but the MPC will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Headline index surges, but the details still point to weakness.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
