- In one line: Non-core pressures drive significant gains, offsetting the good news in core.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation rebounds driven by rising electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Two-tier recovery in exports continues.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Jobs market rebounding but wage growth stays soft for now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation edged down in July, but will accelerate as mortgage rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Keeping up the inflation-fighting talk.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Ignore the consensus-matching Q2 y/y print, Philippine consumption is in recession
The RBI keeps up the inflation-fighting talk
Malaysian fuel sales take a hit from subsidy removal
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese export growth surprised the market to the downside, as monthly momentum faded in July.
- Export recovery was dual-track, driven by high-tech demand, while low-tech shipments remain dull.
- Bond-selling by Chinese banks indicates short-term market intervention, probably under PBoC guidance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Mexico and Chile face rising inflation, amid global turmoil and economic uncertainty.
- Banxico and the BCCh will struggle to balance headline inflation control with economic growth needs.
- Adverse weather and global issues complicate the inflation outlook, but Fed easing will bring relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The first estimate of GDP growth was positive at the start of the last three normal recessions...
- ...Payrolls provided a much better near-real time guide; they are not flashing bright red, for now.
- Initial claims still point to a resilient economy, but a run of higher prints this autumn remains likely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- July PAYE employment should gain 30K month-to-month, while the June jobless rate rises to 4.5%.
- We think May AWE growth being revised up is a decent bet and we factor in a 0.2% bump.
- So we expect Q2 year-over-year private-sector AWE ex. bonuses growth 20bp above the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint.
- We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022.
- We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recessionary, but what’s happening in consumption?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Thai inflation will return to the target range in the next few months
Sales volumes in the Philippines suffer a second straight q/q drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai CPI surprised marginally to the upside in July, with headline rate rising to 0.8% and core to 0.5%.
- The mean-reversion up in food prices should see inflation return temporarily to target-range until Q1.
- Core inflation is likely to remain under 1%, though; the weak economy will keep this gauge anchored.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in the UK likely rose to 2.3% in July, from 2.0% in June, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be due to easing utility price deflation, as Ofgem cut the price cap less than in July 2023.
- We expect CPI services inflation to slow to 5.5% but uncertainty is high because of volatile hotel prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- German manufacturing output rebounded modestly in June, but likely fell back in July.
- Hard data are now consistent with the reported GDP decline in Q2, but what happened to consumption?
- We’re nudging down our Q3 GDP growth forecast in Germany by 0.1pp to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazilian Real — Challenges amidst easing external woes
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by yen carry trade and global noise
- Chilean Peso — Resilient despite copper price declines
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We look for a decline in initial claims to 235K, from 249K, as the boost from Hurricane Beryl wears off...
- ...The trend in initial claims is rising, but daily Homebase employment data present no cause for panic.
- The latest plunge in Treasury yields likely will support housing market activity only marginally.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
