- A 5% stock price fall usually knocks confidence enough to lower real consumer spending growth by about 0.5pp.
- Associated falls in interest rates will do less than usual to bolster confidence, as households are less indebted.
- Bank lending standards are now tightening at a slower pace, but they remain very restrictive.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: The Construction PMI roars ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Relief, but it will be short-lived.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sales fell, but German data are missing again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Imported inflation puts pressure on commodity inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Retail sales return to growth in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Japan's wages surge appears driven by bonuses
Duncan WrigleyChina+
First BSP rate cut delayed to October
The net trade story will be painful for the Philippines' upcoming Q2 GDP report
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Central banks in Mexico and Peru navigate turbulent markets ahead of critical monetary policy meetings.
- Global economic uncertainty forces policymakers to reassess monetary strategies amid financial volatility.
- Policy decisions will increasingly hinge on the actions of the US Fed and geopolitical dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ECB will provide liquidity via LTROs before resorting to an emergency rate cut.
- We now think the ECB will cut by 25bp in September and October, but not in December.
- Markets now agree with our SNB call, so we’re sticking to our guns for two more cuts this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Markets are pricing the MPC to cut interest rates about as fast as after the dot.com bubble burst.
- We think that is too much: our US colleagues forecast slower, but continued, US growth…
- …The UK and US economies are not currently synchronised and UK inflation is higher than in 2001.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We now expect the BSP to wait until October to cut rates, as inflation re-breached the target in July.
- Taiwanese inflation, up slightly in July, should start to benefit from friendly base effects from August.
- Singaporean retail sales growth continued to deteriorate in June on weaker volumes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming
- EUROZONE - SNB will still cut twice more; EZ labour market held up in Q2
- UK - Doves let loose... another rate cut is coming by year-end
- CHINA+ - China’s new urbanisation plan should ramp up domestic demand
- EM ASIA - Property price growth to remain elevated in Singapore till 2026
- LATAM - LatAm: Divergent monetary policies highlight complex landscape
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Indonesian GDP growth barely changed in Q2, at 5.1%, despite the U-turn in election spend.
- Capex was the main cushion on a quarterly basis, but dark clouds are still building over consumption.
- The correction in food prices has run its course, but food disinflation still has plenty of room to run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- July’s headline PMI signals 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth and only a gradual decline in inflation.
- Surging business optimism, hiring and new orders suggests activity growth will accelerate.
- The July PMI will not push the MPC to cut rates again in September; we now expect November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008…
- ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound.
- We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Weak Korean export rebound was disappointing; working-day adjusted growth actually eased sharply.
- Deeper dive in US shipment growth was the driver, coupled with a double-digit plunge in car exports.
- Firming KRW and easing cost burden give BoK more room to cut rates, but unlikely to hasten the timeline.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Weak economic activity in Chile signals a need for further interest rate cuts, despite headwinds.
- Confidence declines sharply, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty and higher electricity tariffs.
- Peru maintains benign inflation, allowing the BCRP to consider future rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Economic and market conditions usually have been worse than now to trigger an emergency Fed meeting...
- ...But rates are far above neutral and the next meeting is six weeks out; Mr. Powell will act if markets deteriorate.
- July’s ISM services survey kept recession fears at bay, but it still strongly supports the case for Fed easing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
