Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

Samuel TombsUS

2 May 2025 US Monitor Claims boosted by school holiday timing, but the trend will rise soon

Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

2 May 2025 LatAm Monitor. A narrow escape from recession, but the picture is far from rosy

Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor

Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.

Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia

2 May 2025 China+ Monitor The BoJ's dovish hold renders rate hikes unlikely this year

The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Trade uncertainty is now weighing on Eurozone investment

We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment.
Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock.
Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 May 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely unchanged in March as erratic growth unwinds

We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK