- In one line: Borrowing close to Budget forecasts, but unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Shoppers return in force, offering upside risks to Q2 GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth and emerging hopes for the economy boost consumer confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Korean exports power ahead thanks to AI-chip shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean WDA 20-day exports forge ahead, thanks to AI chip boom
Japan's consumer inflation ticks up, despite softening flash PMI readings
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Stocks will like Fed easing, but will be less enamored of a potentially steep drop in gross margins.
- Existing home sales fell a bit further in May and a sustained recovery looks a long way off.
- The pick-up in the employment index of S&P Global PMI survey in June is probably a red herring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
- Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ PMI fell in June, but it rose solidly over Q2 as a whole; all eyes are now on the early Q3 data.
- A drop in the EZ manufacturing output PMI raises questions about the rebound in industry; a blip?
- The French PMIs were stung by political uncertainty; we think it will blow over by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: A solid start to Q2 following a poor Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Still-rising; lifted by a strong labour market and firming real wage growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Residential investment likely to plunge in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In on line: A hawkish hold, prioritising inflation anchoring, and restoring credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In on line: A hawkish hold, prioritising inflation anchoring, and restoring credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
