New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The PMI fall is an election-related blip, the UK is growing fine.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Slower but still decent growth and price pressures are easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Slower but still decent growth and price pressures are easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hit by political uncertainty, but no panic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Hit by political uncertainty, but no panic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The MPC take another step to a cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Borrowing close to Budget forecasts, but unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Shoppers return in force, offering upside risks to Q2 GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth and emerging hopes for the economy boost consumer confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Korean exports power ahead thanks to AI-chip shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean WDA 20-day exports forge ahead, thanks to AI chip boom
Japan's consumer inflation ticks up, despite softening flash PMI readings
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Stocks will like Fed easing, but will be less enamored of a potentially steep drop in gross margins.
- Existing home sales fell a bit further in May and a sustained recovery looks a long way off.
- The pick-up in the employment index of S&P Global PMI survey in June is probably a red herring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
- Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s sky-high PMIs were mixed in Q2; services lost steam, but manufacturing hit new heights…
- …The year- over-year story is soft, though, with both gauges combined pointing to sub -6% GDP growth.
- Hiring has supposedly gone up a level in recent months, but the hard data tell a very different story.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
