Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June 2024

  • In one line: House prices rise as mortgage rates look set to fall again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 July 2024 UK Monitor We expect CPI inflation dropped to 1.9% in June

  • We expect CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Inflation will be lowered by falling food inflation and a slight easing in the pace of services price gains.
  • We expect services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same margin as in May.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation will hit 2% by August, oil prices permitting

  • Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on. 
  • Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now. 
  • Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's economy struggling as domestic demand falters

  • Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
  • Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
  • Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor CPI and BI rate expectations need a serious downward recalibration

  • Indonesian inflation fell more quickly than expected in June, to 2.5%, as food disinflation intensified…
  • …Bolstering our below-consensus CPI and BI rate forecasts; we still expect 50bp of cuts in Q4.
  • The ongoing rise in manufacturing momentum in ASEAN looks durable, with activity more balanced.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 July 2024 China+ Monitor Korean manufacturing riding the AI chip boom

  • Korea’s June headline manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since April 2022.
  • Exports continued to power ahead in June, thanks to semiconductor exports for AI applications.
  • Rising import costs boost our conviction that the BoK will delay its first policy rate cut until Q4. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 July 2024 US Monitor Powell signals Fed inflation fears are fading; softer labor market is a risk

  • Chair Powell sounds more optimistic on inflation, but wants to see no further rise in unemployment.
  • We expect initial claims above the consensus for the fifth time in six weeks; summer data will be volatile.
  • The June ISM services survey will probably provide further signs of disinflation ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, June 2024

  • In one line: Manufacturing continues to recover solidly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 July 2024 China+ Monitor China's light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand

  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI continued to outpace the official index in June…
  • …reflecting better performance among light industries and high-tech than heavy industries.
  • The construction index was hit by extreme weather conditions, masking any stimulus impact.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 July 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's hot Q2 GDP hides an export wobble; H2 will be bumpier

  • GDP growth in Vietnam leapt to 6.9% in Q2, easily beating all expectations; we now see 6.5% for 2024.
  • That said, industry and services remain historically sub-par, and industry is likely to face a tougher H2.
  • The tourism recovery is still going strong, helping services, but the credit data are raising red flags.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's BanRep cuts rates and maintains cautious stance

  • BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
  • We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
  • The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 July 2024 US Monitor Quits, payrolls and wages data set to signal a softening labor market

  • Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
  • High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
  • Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

2 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will the Centre-Left vote unite to deny RN an absolute majority?

  • Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
  • Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
  • German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 July 2024 UK Monitor Lower consumer saving and firms raising finance will help growth

  • Money and credit data for May suggest consumption and investment will drive brisk GDP growth.
  • Consumers’ reducing the amount they save to pre-Covid norms suggests they are willing to spend.
  • Firms raised £10.4B of external finance in the past three months, above the £7.2B 2015-to-19 average.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, June 2024

In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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