- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
- How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
- We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATER RATE CUTS SLOW THE HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY...
- ...WE EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE ONLY 3% IN 2024
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PERSISTENCE PERSISTS...
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN AUGUST, THEN ONCE A QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...
- …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET
- …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, May
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's Caixin PMI rises, thanks to robust consumer goods output
Korean manufacturing PMI hits a two-year high
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Food disinflation is intensifying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: China's NBS PMIs surprised to the downside
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Manufacturing activities flounder in May on weakening domestic and external demand
Non-manufacturing PMI stalls as construction activity slow sharply
Japan’s Tokyo inflation accelerates on the back of expiring energy subsidies
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
April's industrial profits show slower recovery due to protracted reflation cycle
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: April was a bad month for consumers, but don’t write them off.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A headscratcher, but an unreliable signal for the broader economy.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US