- ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
- Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- This week’s ECB meeting will be a dovish hold; Ms. Lagarde will lay the foundation for a June cut.
- The consensus and markets see the ECB’s policy rate falling below 2.5% in 2025; we beg to differ.
- Rising production in industry and services points to upside risks to German GDP growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revisions between the first and third payroll estimate have become bigger and increasingly negative.
- Under pressure SMEs likely are under-represented in the first estimate; expect larger downward revisions in Q2.
- We expect another fall in the NFIB index in March, as small businesses remain under pressure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Disinflation consolidated in the Andes in March, but we expect the downtrend to continue in Q2.
- This will provide room for further policy accommodation, but policymakers will proceed with caution…
- …And rate cuts will be modest, given a number of domestic and external threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP held rates yesterday but sounded more hawkish, raising its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.0%.
- We still expect 100bp in cuts this year, with the first in June; food inflation will start co-operating in May.
- Another day, another Lunar New Year boost to February retail sales growth; this time in Malaysia.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for PAYE employment to rise by 30K in March and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.9%.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses in February...
- ... Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to undershoot the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: China forex reserves rose more than expected in March, thanks to stronger trade surplus and bond inflows.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Pointing to further gains in the PMI.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Report on Jobs survey says it’s time to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts prove to be an effective tonic for construction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast and services inflation easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Much better; time to lift Q1 GDP growth forecasts?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Industry is a key reason Spain outperformed in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Held back by a plunge in energy output; core production did better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
