- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Anticipated hike to electricity tariffs spooks the CBC into a surprise hike.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Modest improvement in still-dull Japanese manufacturing activity reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but conditions will improve soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Japan's robust services sector contrasts with drab manufacturing activity; Exports still strong, despite headline dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
India's manufacturing PMI jumps to a 17-year high, but so what?
The rebuild of inflationary pressures in services is becoming harder to ignore
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- Both federal and state/local government are set to make much smaller contributions to growth this year.
- S&L government housing construction will slow, and the surge in payrolls will moderate, likely quite soon.
- February’s jump in existing homes sales will not be sustained; mortgage demand remains very weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s COPOM voted unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50bp, as expected, but has exercised caution.
- The forward guidance has been limited to one meeting ahead, due to increased uncertainty.
- A further 50bp rate cut in May is likely, with subsequent decisions contingent on the data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In an unexpected move, the Taiwanese central bank raised its discount rate to 2.000% yesterday…
- …Its main worry appears to be the impending rise in electricity tariffs, likely to come in April.
- The improving economic outlook has given the CBC space, but this hike is likely 'one -and- done'.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The SNB cut interest rates, beating other major DM central banks to the punch on easing policy.
- More easing is likely over the coming year; we look for 75bp of further cuts by December.
- The risks are to fewer cuts; the SNB sees inflation in line with its price-stability mandate out to 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC’s tweaked guidance moves it closer to cutting rates.
- It continues to set sizeable hurdles to the first cut, downplaying weakening wages and inflation.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but still see risks skewed to a delay until August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: On track for a rise in Q1, surprisingly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recovery in Italian industry is delayed.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing inflation will raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The FOMC stuck to its December forecast of 75bp easing this year; recent inflation data just a “bump”.
- Chair Powell sees no “cracks” in the labor market; the NFIB and WARN data tell a different story.
- Today’s existing home sales data are wild, but whatever they show, a real recovery is some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US