- ASEAN’s PMI slowed noticeably to 51.1 in August from the mid-to-high 51.0 range since May…
- …Vietnam's and Thailand’s PMIs saw the biggest declines from July, but Indonesia is the real worry.
- The deterioration in orders, due to BI’s excessively tight policy stance in Indonesia, is isolated for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom.
- September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate.
- The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The final August PMI signals Q3 GDP growth of 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-to-quarter.
- The PMI indicates falling inflation, but rising margins and job growth will keep price rises elevated.
- The MPC has little reason to rush through another rate cut this month; it will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: GDP growth is unlikely to slow in Q3, as the PMI suggests.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: GDP growth is unlikely to slow in Q3, as the PMI suggests.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Severe competition drives services price cuts in China, despite resilient demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the headline.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the ASEAN headline
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Manufacturing on course for a fresh slump in Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- US - Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum
- EUROZONE - Italian growth will improve, despite construction capex dwindling
- UK- UK still vulnerable to energy price shocks
- CHINA+ - China’s aging housing stock another reason for people to save
- EM ASIA - Rural consumption reviving, but India’s GDP slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s labour market starting to show signs of moderation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The details of the August ISM manufacturing survey are bleak, despite the uptick in the headline.
- Weakness in the manufacturing sector looks set to remain a small drag on payrolls and growth.
- The July JOLTS report will reinforce the message that the labor market is cooling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s GDP surged 1.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector growth.
- Labour-market strength and government spending bolstered the economic recovery in H1…
- …But challenges loom: fiscal pressures and weakening indicators signal a potential slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Net trade drove the increase in Swiss GDP in Q2, while investment held it back.
- Growth will slow in Q3 but pick up again in Q4, such that GDP rises by 1.2% in 2024 the same as in 2023.
- Inflation was a touch higher than we expected in August, but the SNB will still cut twice more this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The July jobless rate should fall to 4.1%, with a risk of a 4.0% print, while LFS job growth should accelerate.
- We look for August PAYE employment to gain 30K month-to-month.
- We assume 0.5% month-to-month AWE growth in July, and a 0.1pp upward revision to growth in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDP growth surges in Q2 amid strong labour market.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Stubborn domestic inflation prevents bigger decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
