- Economic activity is slowing as financial conditions tighten and agricultural output was hit by drought.
- Peru’s economic recovery is gaining momentum, driven by a strong labour market and mining output.
- Chile’s BCCh will cut rates but likely adopt a cautious approach, as geopolitical noise is mounting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China has doubled its financial support for white- listed property projects, aiming to steady the sector.
- China’s exports surprised negatively in September, due to slowing demand from the G7 and BRICS.
- Uncertainty in the external environment has risen amid trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- ECB doves claimed a big victory yesterday, but we doubt this is the start of a much quicker easing cycle.
- The central bank is now more focused on downside risks to growth; all eyes on growth data in Q4.
- EZ inflation fell sharply in September, but it will rebound soon; core inflation is set to dip in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The October 30 Budget will likely boost government spending more than taxes, raising growth.
- Tax hikes will pay for day-to-day spending, while Ms. Reeves will tweak her fiscal rule to boost investment.
- Markets will be unruffled, so gilt yields could fall as any additional sovereign risk premium unwinds.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Thank a big reversal in the August leap in gold imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: House prices rebound strongly in August as rate cuts feed through.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile air fares cut CPI services inflation and will rebound, but Governor Bailey will now look for “aggressive" cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expect easing to resume in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: EZ industry escaped recession in Q3; investor sentiment rises again, modestly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil — Fiscal reset amid policy shifts
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s pragmatic economic shift?
- Colombia — Increased political noise hurting the economy
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We still think French GDP rose solidly in Q3, despite hard data pointing to downside risks.
- Government spending in France is set to slow sharply next year, but the hit to GDP should be minor.
- We now see GDP in France growing by 1.0% in 2025, 0.3pp below our previous forecast.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
