- Ignore the near-10% surge in headline durable goods orders in July; the details were weak…
- …Real core capital goods shipments fell by 0.5%, pointing to falling equipment investment in Q3.
- A hit to sentiment among Republicans probably weighed on overall consumer confidence in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s COPOM is navigating inflation concerns and an economic slowdown, keeping a cautious stance.
- Inflation risks persist despite recent data, which will force the COPOM to hold rates in the near term.
- Softening economic activity, core inflation in check and the Fed’s easing will allow cuts in late Q4 or Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Singapore stayed at 2.4%, as services disinflation offset transportation inflation...
- ...But it is too early to celebrate, since the drop was due to external-facing travel services disinflation.
- Taiwanese retail sales started Q3 disappointingly, but rising wage growth is a promising signal.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China's July retail sales bounce is misleading; it is simply a recovery from June's unexpected fall.
- Consumption has been beset by socioeconomic factors: jobs, income, policies, social norms.
- Demand-side policies will remain targeted; Western- style handouts to consumers are unlikely.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Near- and longer-term consumer inflation expectations are stabilising above 2%...
- ...Firms’ selling price expectations are mixed, but analysts and forecasters see inflation reaching 2%.
- Inflation expectations support our call for further easing by the ECB in coming months.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The official ONS measure of house prices has risen above its 2022 peak and will likely keep gaining...
- ...as private-sector house price indices have returned to growth, and mortgage interest rates are falling.
- We expect mortgage approvals for house purchase to rise to 63K in July.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
THE ECB WILL CUT INTEREST RATES TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
- SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER LOOK MOST LIKELY TO US
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
New home sales unlikely to keep rising.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Slow start to Taiwanese retail spending growth in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Solid, but not enough to reverse the plunge in July.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Cooling of Singaporean services inflation prone to reversal
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
- Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
- New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: CBI orders and prices rebound as expected in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.
Samuel TombsUK
- Chair Powell probably will indicate at Jackson Hole that multiple rate cuts are likely this year.
- The S&P Global composite PMI has joined the raft of indicators pointing to weaker hiring.
- Existing home sales rebounded in July, but a sustained near-term recovery is unlikely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Malaysian headline inflation benefited from food disinflation, which offset higher services inflation...
- …But this engine of disinflation is likely to stall in the coming months, resulting in the headline rising.
- We still expect the BNM to hold policy rates in 2024, as average inflation is below its forecast.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+