Pantheon Publications

9 July 2024 China+ Monitor Japanese wage growth steady, except for manufacturing workers

• Overall Japanese wage growth remained sluggish in May, though manufacturing pay rose faster.
• China’s foreign reserves were hit by currency- valuation effects and equity market outflows in June.
• The PBoC’s additional OMO flexibility is likely signalling upcoming government-bond sales.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

9 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters

• Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on. 
• The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked. 
• Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2024 UK Monitor Labour-market preview: another strong wage gain in May

• We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
• We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
• Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2024

• In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: Still consistent with a rebound in the PMI, despite falling.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Lifted by a crash in imports.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 July 2024 Japan's overall wage growth still sluggish

Japan's overall wage growth still sluggish

Improvement narrowly confined to full-time manufacturing workers

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, June

Foreign reserves hit by currency valuation effects and equity market outflows

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: US Employment Report, June

Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, May 2024

In one line: Goods spending is not benefitting from the recovery in real incomes, yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Results, July 2024

• In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Exit Poll, July 2024

• In one line: Exit poll projects large Labour majority.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, June

• In one line: Faster goods inflation pushes up the headline. 

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, May 2024

In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, May 2024

In one line: Mediocre midway through Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, June

• In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Grim, but June should be better.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 July 2024

The turn in Philippine inflation is finally here
Vehicle sales in Singapore continue to flatter headline retail sales

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, June 2024

• In one line: Still weak but registrations will pick up later this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, June 2024

• In one line: Two steps forward, one step back.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK