Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
- The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
- Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s exports picked up the pace a notch in May, mainly thanks to stronger trade with ASEAN.
- High-tech exports, such as cars and electronics, are outperforming fading trade in traditional goods.
- A modest recovery in global demand should help China’s growth this year, despite protectionist risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
- The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
- Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
- The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
- We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: A mixed performance on a sequential basis, but downside risk
prevailing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private car sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: Vehicle sales fail to offset retail weakness in Singapore.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Goods inflation U-turns, while services inflation remains sticky.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Decent, and it will get better still.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Focus on the upturn in core orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
- Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
- We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
- A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
- The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwanese headline inflation was above the consensus in May, as goods disinflation U-turned...
- …Services inflation remained above 2%, on high rental prices and a still-tight labour market.
- A better growth outlook could spur the CBC to raise rates next week to combat inflation expectations.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The May Caixin services activity index hit its highest level for almost a year, thanks to holiday spending.
- Consumers are mostly opting for cheaper products, but this is starting to change as the recovery firms.
- Restrained services inflation is likely to continue, given the cautious optimism about future demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+