Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: A fall after improving throughout Q2.
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
- Early national data suggest the fall in EZ consumer confidence in June was focused outside the big two.
- The details indicate that risks to spending in Q2 are still to the downside in France and Germany.
- Indeed figures show slowing wage growth in Italy in May, but a pick-up in France and Spain.
- In one line: Manufacturing orders fall in June but the worst of the tariff-induced slowdown appears over.
In one line: Unchanged at a weak level.
- In one line: Pausing, for now.
- In one line: Pausing, for now.
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
In one line: At a one-year high, but still consistent with slower growth.
